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92L now up to a 60% chance for development. Recon out there but just under the threshhold for classification, may become a TD later today.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 296 (Idalia) , Major: 296 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 296 (Idalia) Major: 296 (Idalia)
Rem Alberto
ADV#13 10:00 pm EDT
22.3N 102.0W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1000mb
Moving:
W at 24 mph
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Archives 2010s >> 2017 Forecast Lounge
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vpbob21
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 115
Loc: Ohio
Re: HURRICANE Maria Lounge
      Sun Sep 17 2017 11:23 PM

The only good thing I can think of is that most of the model guidance suggest a track that should stay a little south of the islands that got crushed by Irma. The bad thing is that most of the models are calling for Maria to strengthen explosively as it approaches the islands - some suggesting a 20 - 25 mb drop in pressure in the last 12 hours before moving through the islands. It appears Dominica is pretty much in the crosshairs of the spot where Maria pushes through the Lesser Antilles (supported by the NHC forecast - 71% chance of hurricane force winds). I was on a cruise a while back that called in Dominica and got to see some of the island and I don't think most of the houses would survive a strong tropical storm, let alone a cat 4 hurricane. I am really worried of a major catastrophe if they were to take a direct hit from this.

Beyond that the models start to fan out but generally indicate St. Croix and eastern Puerto Rico as the most likely areas to get hit then maybe the Turks and Caicos (which did get hit by Irma). 0Z runs should be interesting.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* HURRICANE Maria Lounge cieldumort Sun Sep 17 2017 11:23 PM
. * * Re: HURRICANE Maria Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Sep 18 2017 08:17 AM
. * * Re: HURRICANE Maria Lounge doug   Mon Sep 18 2017 11:13 AM
. * * Re: HURRICANE Maria Lounge Reaper   Mon Sep 18 2017 01:21 PM
. * * Re: HURRICANE Maria Lounge scottsvb   Mon Sep 18 2017 01:52 PM
. * * Re: HURRICANE Maria Lounge Steve C   Tue Sep 19 2017 12:05 AM
. * * Re: HURRICANE Maria Lounge cieldumort   Tue Sep 19 2017 12:13 AM
. * * Re: HURRICANE Maria Lounge vpbob21   Sun Sep 17 2017 11:23 PM
. * * Re: 96L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Sep 15 2017 04:59 AM
. * * Re: 96L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Sep 15 2017 08:20 AM
. * * Re: 96L Lounge ftlaudbob   Fri Sep 15 2017 09:45 AM
. * * Re: 96L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Sep 15 2017 12:10 PM
. * * Re: 96L Lounge Keith B   Sun Sep 17 2017 05:30 PM
. * * Re: 96L Lounge TPuppy   Sun Sep 17 2017 08:49 PM
. * * Re: 96L Lounge Biff83   Sun Sep 17 2017 09:56 PM
. * * Re: 96L Lounge Reaper   Sun Sep 17 2017 10:00 PM
. * * Re: 96L Lounge doug   Fri Sep 15 2017 04:40 PM
. * * Re: 96L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Sep 15 2017 02:33 PM
. * * Re: 96L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Sep 16 2017 12:54 AM
. * * Re: 96L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Sep 16 2017 08:57 AM
. * * Re: 96L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Sep 16 2017 11:52 AM
. * * Re: 96L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Sep 16 2017 05:59 PM
. * * Re: 96L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Sep 17 2017 04:40 AM
. * * Re: 96L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 19 2017 05:54 AM
. * * Re: 96L Lounge M.A.   Tue Sep 19 2017 08:33 AM
. * * Re: 96L Lounge doug   Tue Sep 19 2017 02:47 PM
. * * Re: 96L Lounge Steve C   Tue Sep 19 2017 05:07 PM
. * * Re: 96L Lounge TPuppy   Tue Sep 19 2017 08:53 PM
. * * Re: 96L Lounge Kraig   Tue Sep 19 2017 11:29 PM
. * * Re: 96L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 20 2017 10:53 AM
. * * Re: 96L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 21 2017 09:33 AM
. * * Re: 96L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Sep 22 2017 05:25 AM
. * * Re: 96L Lounge ftlaudbob   Fri Sep 22 2017 07:29 AM
. * * Re: 96L Lounge B.C.Francis   Sun Sep 17 2017 11:42 AM
. * * Re: 96L Lounge doug   Sun Sep 17 2017 01:01 PM
. * * Re: 96L Lounge Keith B   Sat Sep 16 2017 10:57 AM
. * * Re: 96L Lounge doug   Sat Sep 16 2017 08:15 AM
. * * Re: 96L Lounge Bloodstar   Fri Sep 15 2017 04:06 PM
. * * Re: 96L Lounge B.C.Francis   Fri Sep 15 2017 05:34 PM

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