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Archives 2010s >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

vpbob21
Weather Guru

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Posts: 115
Loc: Ohio

Re: HURRICANE Maria Lounge
Sun Sep 17 2017 11:23 PM

The only good thing I can think of is that most of the model guidance suggest a track that should stay a little south of the islands that got crushed by Irma. The bad thing is that most of the models are calling for Maria to strengthen explosively as it approaches the islands - some suggesting a 20 - 25 mb drop in pressure in the last 12 hours before moving through the islands. It appears Dominica is pretty much in the crosshairs of the spot where Maria pushes through the Lesser Antilles (supported by the NHC forecast - 71% chance of hurricane force winds). I was on a cruise a while back that called in Dominica and got to see some of the island and I don't think most of the houses would survive a strong tropical storm, let alone a cat 4 hurricane. I am really worried of a major catastrophe if they were to take a direct hit from this.

Beyond that the models start to fan out but generally indicate St. Croix and eastern Puerto Rico as the most likely areas to get hit then maybe the Turks and Caicos (which did get hit by Irma). 0Z runs should be interesting.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
HURRICANE Maria Lounge	cieldumort	Sun Sep 17 2017 11:23 PM
Re: HURRICANE Maria Lounge	MikeC	Mon Sep 18 2017 08:17 AM
Re: HURRICANE Maria Lounge	doug	Mon Sep 18 2017 11:13 AM
Re: HURRICANE Maria Lounge	Reaper	Mon Sep 18 2017 01:21 PM
Re: HURRICANE Maria Lounge	scottsvb	Mon Sep 18 2017 01:52 PM
Re: HURRICANE Maria Lounge	Steve C	Tue Sep 19 2017 12:05 AM
Re: HURRICANE Maria Lounge	cieldumort	Tue Sep 19 2017 12:13 AM
Re: HURRICANE Maria Lounge	vpbob21	Sun Sep 17 2017 11:23 PM
Re: 96L Lounge	MikeC	Fri Sep 15 2017 04:59 AM
Re: 96L Lounge	MikeC	Fri Sep 15 2017 08:20 AM
Re: 96L Lounge	ftlaudbob	Fri Sep 15 2017 09:45 AM
Re: 96L Lounge	MikeC	Fri Sep 15 2017 12:10 PM
Re: 96L Lounge	Keith B	Sun Sep 17 2017 05:30 PM
Re: 96L Lounge	TPuppy	Sun Sep 17 2017 08:49 PM
Re: 96L Lounge	Biff83	Sun Sep 17 2017 09:56 PM
Re: 96L Lounge	Reaper	Sun Sep 17 2017 10:00 PM
Re: 96L Lounge	doug	Fri Sep 15 2017 04:40 PM
Re: 96L Lounge	MikeC	Fri Sep 15 2017 02:33 PM
Re: 96L Lounge	MikeC	Sat Sep 16 2017 12:54 AM
Re: 96L Lounge	MikeC	Sat Sep 16 2017 08:57 AM
Re: 96L Lounge	MikeC	Sat Sep 16 2017 11:52 AM
Re: 96L Lounge	MikeC	Sat Sep 16 2017 05:59 PM
Re: 96L Lounge	MikeC	Sun Sep 17 2017 04:40 AM
Re: 96L Lounge	MikeC	Tue Sep 19 2017 05:54 AM
Re: 96L Lounge	M.A.	Tue Sep 19 2017 08:33 AM
Re: 96L Lounge	doug	Tue Sep 19 2017 02:47 PM
Re: 96L Lounge	Steve C	Tue Sep 19 2017 05:07 PM
Re: 96L Lounge	TPuppy	Tue Sep 19 2017 08:53 PM
Re: 96L Lounge	Kraig	Tue Sep 19 2017 11:29 PM
Re: 96L Lounge	MikeC	Wed Sep 20 2017 10:53 AM
Re: 96L Lounge	MikeC	Thu Sep 21 2017 09:33 AM
Re: 96L Lounge	MikeC	Fri Sep 22 2017 05:25 AM
Re: 96L Lounge	ftlaudbob	Fri Sep 22 2017 07:29 AM
Re: 96L Lounge	B.C.Francis	Sun Sep 17 2017 11:42 AM
Re: 96L Lounge	doug	Sun Sep 17 2017 01:01 PM
Re: 96L Lounge	Keith B	Sat Sep 16 2017 10:57 AM
Re: 96L Lounge	doug	Sat Sep 16 2017 08:15 AM
Re: 96L Lounge	Bloodstar	Fri Sep 15 2017 04:06 PM
Re: 96L Lounge	B.C.Francis	Fri Sep 15 2017 05:34 PM

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