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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 274 (Idalia) , Major: 274 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 274 (Idalia) Major: 274 (Idalia)
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General Discussion >> The Tropics Today
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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 327
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE
      Thu Sep 21 2017 12:56 PM

What's interesting about this year is what it portends for the 2018 season.The ENSO neutral condition's we're experiencing now have contributed to the lower shear environment across the basin. With this knowledge it's worth mentioning the La Nina forecast for this winter and potentially what could carry over into next season. I have linked the latest La Nina forecast:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

If this forecast pans out we could see this hyperactivity for the duration of this event. La Nina cycles can last up to two years. For readers who are not aware of the effect of La Nina on Hurricane activity in the Atlantic I offer this:

'Dr. William Gray at the Colorado State University pioneered research efforts leading to the discovery of La Niña impacts on Atlantic hurricane activity, and to the first operational long-range forecasts of Atlantic basin hurricane activity. According to this research, the chances for the continental U.S. and the Caribbean Islands to experience hurricane activity increases substantially during La Niña.'

As to the rapid intensification of these storms this year I will have to let someone more knowledgeable speculate on that.

--------------------
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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumort Thu Sep 21 2017 12:56 PM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumort   Thu Sep 28 2017 02:16 AM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumort   Thu Sep 28 2017 02:18 AM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumort   Thu Sep 28 2017 02:20 AM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumort   Wed Oct 04 2017 01:35 PM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumort   Wed Oct 04 2017 01:46 PM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumort   Sat Oct 07 2017 04:26 AM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumort   Sat Oct 07 2017 06:38 AM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumort   Sat Oct 14 2017 08:22 PM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumort   Sat Oct 14 2017 08:50 PM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumort   Sun Oct 15 2017 02:31 AM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE doug   Wed Oct 18 2017 06:02 PM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE M.A.   Thu Nov 30 2017 08:28 PM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumort   Sat Oct 14 2017 08:53 PM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumort   Sun Sep 24 2017 08:01 PM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumort   Sun Sep 24 2017 07:59 PM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumort   Sun Sep 24 2017 04:18 AM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumort   Fri Sep 22 2017 05:21 AM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumort   Thu Sep 21 2017 01:34 AM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE craigm   Thu Sep 21 2017 12:56 PM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumort   Thu Sep 21 2017 04:52 PM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumort   Thu Sep 21 2017 07:17 PM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE Keith B   Thu Sep 21 2017 10:56 PM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE Keith B   Fri Sep 22 2017 08:48 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumort   Wed Sep 20 2017 10:24 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? DarlynDeville   Wed Sep 20 2017 11:01 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? DarlynDeville   Thu Sep 21 2017 12:35 AM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumort   Wed Sep 20 2017 07:22 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumort   Tue Sep 19 2017 12:26 AM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumort   Mon Sep 18 2017 08:53 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumort   Thu Sep 14 2017 03:12 AM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumort   Mon Sep 11 2017 06:26 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumort   Sun Sep 10 2017 06:51 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumort   Fri Sep 08 2017 09:55 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumort   Fri Sep 08 2017 05:45 AM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumort   Thu Sep 07 2017 08:03 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumort   Wed Sep 06 2017 11:30 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumort   Wed Sep 06 2017 10:50 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumort   Wed Sep 06 2017 11:22 AM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumort   Sun Sep 03 2017 04:48 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumort   Sat Sep 02 2017 01:34 AM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumort   Sat Sep 02 2017 01:03 AM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumort   Sat Sep 02 2017 12:44 AM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumort   Fri Sep 01 2017 02:02 AM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumort   Mon Aug 14 2017 04:10 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? MichaelA   Tue Aug 22 2017 04:54 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumort   Tue Aug 22 2017 07:32 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumort   Wed Aug 09 2017 06:26 AM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? Keith B   Wed Aug 09 2017 10:22 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumort   Wed Aug 09 2017 10:48 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumort   Thu Jul 20 2017 11:04 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumort   Thu Jul 20 2017 09:52 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumort   Thu Jul 20 2017 09:34 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumort   Thu Jul 20 2017 08:34 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumort   Sun Jul 16 2017 11:49 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumort   Wed Jul 19 2017 01:19 AM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumort   Wed Jul 19 2017 01:47 AM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumort   Mon Jul 10 2017 05:40 AM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumort   Thu Jul 06 2017 02:04 AM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumort   Tue Jun 20 2017 07:30 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumort   Sat Jun 17 2017 08:06 AM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumort   Fri Oct 06 2017 06:15 AM

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