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Tropical Storm Watch issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to W of Channel 5 Bridge, and for the Dry Tortugas #RAFAEL #FLWX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 25 (Milton) , Major: 25 (Milton) Florida - Any: 25 (Milton) Major: 25 (Milton)
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ADV#10 11:00 am EDT
38.5N 16.2W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 999mb
Moving:
Ene at 17 mph
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TS Rafael
ADV#5A 6:00 pm EDT
15.8N 76.9W
Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 1000mb
Moving:
Nnw at 9 mph
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2488
Loc: Austin, Tx
Invest 99L Lounge
      Wed Sep 27 2017 09:44 PM



An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave and mid-level trof, presently centered just south of Cuba at the time of this post, is in a slightly favorable environment for slow development over the next 48 hours, and potentially modestly favorable environment overall over the course of the next five days as it tracks north, and then possibly northwest or west.

This feature is not yet Invest tagged, but NHC has highlighted it within its TWOs today, and gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone within 120 hours.

Regardless of development, this disturbance will likely enhance rains across Cuba, the Bahamas and Florida for the next several days, and we are now watching it closely for any signs of development. Presently, model support is lukewarm, with the ECMWF, GFS, GEM and others on board for at least some slow cooking. Stay tuned.


Title updated to reflect Invest tag - Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Thu Sep 28 2017 05:23 PM)

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Invest 99L Lounge cieldumort Wed Sep 27 2017 09:44 PM
. * * Re: Caribbean Disturbance cieldumort   Thu Sep 28 2017 05:21 PM
. * * Re: Caribbean Disturbance OrlandoDan   Fri Sep 29 2017 11:39 AM

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