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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 300 (Idalia) , Major: 300 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 300 (Idalia) Major: 300 (Idalia)

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Archives 2010s >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

Keith B
Weather Hobbyist

Reged:
Posts: 57
Loc: FL, Orange County

Re: 90L Lounge (West Caribbean)
Wed Oct 04 2017 07:37 PM

I was watching Tom Terry on CH 9 this evening. He was showing the GFS and EURO models. EURO was right / East towards Appalachia bay area. The GFS was more towards to LA area.

Further more, from NHC 5p discussion:

While there is some agreement on the
synoptic pattern, the model track agreement is rather poor, even in
the short term, with the GFS and ECMWF being 90 miles apart on the
forecast track as soon as 24 hours out. This has profound
differences down the road, with the GFS-based guidance moving
considerably faster and to the left of the ECMWF and UKMET across
the Gulf of Mexico. Overall, the guidance has generally shifted a
bit westward since the last cycle, so the latest points in the long
range have been adjusted in that direction. At this point, I
wouldn't focus too much attention on the details of the long-range
forecast until the guidance comes into better agreement. A G-IV
mission and Florida special soundings have been set up for tomorrow
to better determine the synoptic steering flow around the cyclone.

It looks rather fluid.

--------------------
Keith Boyer N4TRN
Orange County ARES
Asst. Emerg. Coord. (AEC) Skywarn Orange County, FL
http://www.ocares.org/

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
HURRICANE Nate	MikeC	Wed Oct 04 2017 07:37 PM
Re: Nate Lounge	cieldumort	Fri Oct 06 2017 03:14 AM
Re: Nate Lounge	cieldumort	Sat Oct 07 2017 01:01 AM
Re: Nate Lounge	cieldumort	Sat Oct 07 2017 06:34 PM
Re: Nate Lounge	Genesis	Sat Oct 07 2017 12:09 PM
Re: Nate Lounge	richg	Sat Oct 07 2017 04:35 PM
Re: Nate Lounge	cieldumort	Sat Oct 07 2017 06:17 PM
Re: Nate Lounge	Bloodstar	Fri Oct 06 2017 10:37 AM
Re: Nate Lounge	cieldumort	Fri Oct 06 2017 11:37 AM
Re: Nate Lounge	cieldumort	Fri Oct 06 2017 02:35 AM
Re: Nate Lounge	cieldumort	Fri Oct 06 2017 02:06 AM
Re: Nate Lounge	cieldumort	Thu Oct 05 2017 09:59 PM
Re: Nate Lounge	MikeC	Fri Oct 06 2017 10:50 AM
Re: 90L Lounge (West Caribbean)	cieldumort	Wed Oct 04 2017 02:03 AM
Re: 90L Lounge (West Caribbean)	MikeC	Wed Oct 04 2017 06:05 AM
Re: 90L Lounge (West Caribbean)	Lamar-Plant City	Wed Oct 04 2017 12:26 PM
Re: 90L Lounge (West Caribbean)	Marknole	Wed Oct 04 2017 07:19 PM
Re: 90L Lounge (West Caribbean)	Keith B	Wed Oct 04 2017 07:37 PM
Re: 90L Lounge (West Caribbean)	Keith B	Wed Oct 04 2017 08:28 PM
Re: 90L Lounge (West Caribbean)	JMII	Thu Oct 05 2017 10:58 AM
Re: 90L Lounge (West Caribbean)	Prospero	Thu Oct 05 2017 07:03 PM
Re: 90L Lounge (West Caribbean)	JMII	Fri Oct 06 2017 10:45 AM
Re: 90L Lounge (West Caribbean)	MikeC	Thu Oct 05 2017 07:14 PM
Re: 90L Lounge (West Caribbean)	Prospero	Thu Oct 05 2017 07:47 PM
Re: 90L Lounge (West Caribbean)	cieldumort	Wed Oct 04 2017 01:03 PM
Re: 90L Lounge (West Caribbean)	MikeC	Wed Oct 04 2017 02:49 PM
Re: 90L Lounge (West Caribbean)	OrlandoDan	Wed Oct 04 2017 06:44 PM
Re: 90L Lounge (West Caribbean)	OrlandoDan	Tue Oct 03 2017 08:48 PM

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