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Bay of Campeche area now being tracked as Invest 92L. 40% chance for development, likely to be a rain event, with most of it on the east.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 227 (Zeta) , Major: 290 (Laura) Florida - Any: 976 (Michael) Major: 976 (Michael)

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Reged: Mon
Posts: 2017
Loc: Austin, Tx
November Caribbean Low
      Thu Nov 09 2017 06:18 PM

With the exception of the often bullish Canadian model, despite otherwise tepid model support for development potential, an area of low pressure located in the central Caribbean has been deepening some today, with buoy and ship reports suggesting an area of sustained winds to near Tropical Storm force may be occurring, with gusts in excess of 40 knots. This feature is not yet Invest tagged, but might be later tonight or tomorrow.

Generally, recent runs of the top-rated tropical cyclogeneisis models have not done much with this low, but older runs had. The CIMSS wind shear product analyzes a challenging 30-40 knots of shear, which should keep it in check, but a little more uneven development is not out of the question, and a depression or low-end named storm might form within the next 7 days in this region. Regardless, some blustery weather could persist in the central Caribbean for a few days, and the feature may drift inland and back out over water during this time.

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* November Caribbean Low cieldumortModerator Thu Nov 09 2017 06:18 PM

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