cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Remnants of TS Beryl
Sun Jul 08 2018 08:47 PM
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NHC is actually issuing advisory positions for Rem Beryl, handling her much like a PTC..
That blowup of convection near the former surface center is impressive. Radar out of the eastern Caribbean also somewhat suggestive that a very weak surface circ may now or still exist. 30% Regen odds within 5 days.
Quote:
BULLETIN
Remnants Of Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
800 PM AST Sun Jul 08 2018
...REMNANTS OF BERYL NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 61.3W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM E OF DOMINICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.82 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case, within the next 12
hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress
of the remnants of Beryl.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the remnants of Beryl were located near
latitude 15.5 North, longitude 61.3 West. The remnants are moving
toward the west-northwest near 26 mph (42 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue into Monday. On the forecast track,
the remnants of Beryl will move across the Leeward Islands during
the next few hours, and then move near or south of the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slight weakening is anticipated during the next 24 hours.
However, environmental conditions are expected to become somewhat
conducive for regeneration of a tropical cyclone in a few days when
the remnants of Beryl are forecast to move across the Bahamas and
the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km),
mainly to the north and northeast of the center. La Desirade
Island near Guadeloupe recently reported a wind gust of 43 mph
(69 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.82 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Dominica and
Guadeloupe tonight. Strong gusty winds are also possible elsewhere
across the Leeward Islands tonight, and in the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico on Monday.
RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce storm total rain
accumulations of 2 to 3 inches through Tuesday across the Leeward
and the Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico. Local amounts up
to 5 inches are possible.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Beven
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