September Begins Looking Unlike August

8:30 PM EDT 1 September 2018 Update

Original Entry
After an especially subdued August in the Atlantic, which can occur with the month of September still ending up very active (See 1961 2002 and 2003), we start the new month with conditions for development much different than last, with considerably warmer SSTs in the Tropical Atlantic, and far less inhibiting Saharan dust over the entire North Atlantic. In addition, African Easterly Waves appear to be lining up.

So it goes without saying that because we got a break in August is by no means reason to let ones guard down as we now enter the very climatological peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. And as climatology would have it, we are now watching one tropical storm in the far eastern Atlantic (Florence) and a tropical wave set to enter what could be a fairly favorable state in the Gulf of Mexico next week.

Interesting model outputs on both of these, and with reason to keep watch. You can read and discuss more on the model runs of both in the Forecast Lounge:

Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Lounge and also Labor Day Week Gulf Low Forecast Lounge

{{StormLinks|Gordon|7|7|2018|7|Gordon}}
{{StormLinks|Florence|06|6|2018|6|Florence}}

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Edited by MikeC (Mon Sep 03 2018 08:10 AM)

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