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Sara's remnants are now in the Gulf, but are not expected to reorganize much. Elsewhere, no tropical development is anticipated.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Milton) , Major: 42 (Milton) Florida - Any: 42 (Milton) Major: 42 (Milton)
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Tropical Storm Gordon forms Near the Florida Keys
      Mon Sep 03 2018 02:51 PM

Quote:

Quote:
A little hint of an eye has appeared on the My Radar app on my IPad...could be an artifact



See the same thing, but it must be an artifact, or a transient center clearing. Pressures are too high and winds are too low to support any real inner core of winds.

At least that's my on the feature



The ambient SLPs are relatively high. 1004mb is thereby low on a relative basis. The last recon pass through Gordon found 4mb drop in just 3 hours. The eyewall has shown multiple clean velocity scans well into upper-end tropical storm force, but off and on, or if you like, consistently inconsistent - but also consistent with the 65 MPH (56 KT) sustained wind from the Mesonet site NWS Key West reported earlier this morning.

IMHO, it is more likely than not that this is the development of an inner core and incipient eye (Would put the odds of this above 95%). However, that said, Gordon is a small/mid-sized TC with a very small inner core, and will likely be subject to rapid fluctuations (up and down) of intensity.

The track ahead is actually one of generally favorable shear and hearty SSTs, so an overall strengthening trend possibly with episodes of R.I. looks on target. Cat 1/2 hurricane at landfall seems to me very plausible - less or even slightly higher - depending.

*Edited to correct for pressure drop. (4mb not 6mb - finalized in the second vortex message).

Edited by cieldumort (Mon Sep 03 2018 03:27 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Gordon Approaching North Gulf Coast MikeCAdministrator Mon Sep 03 2018 02:51 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gordon Approaching North Gulf Coast cieldumort   Tue Sep 04 2018 11:25 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gordon Approaching North Gulf Coast cieldumort   Tue Sep 04 2018 09:51 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gordon forms Near the Florida Keys cieldumort   Mon Sep 03 2018 10:38 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gordon forms Near the Florida Keys MikeCAdministrator   Mon Sep 03 2018 09:36 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gordon forms Near the Florida Keys doug   Mon Sep 03 2018 03:05 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gordon forms Near the Florida Keys cieldumort   Mon Sep 03 2018 02:51 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gordon forms Near the Florida Keys doug   Mon Sep 03 2018 02:49 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gordon forms Near the Florida Keys Bloodstar   Mon Sep 03 2018 02:24 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gordon forms Near the Florida Keys doug   Mon Sep 03 2018 02:17 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gordon forms Near the Florida Keys Joeyfl   Mon Sep 03 2018 01:53 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gordon forms Near the Florida Keys doug   Mon Sep 03 2018 01:28 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gordon forms Near the Florida Keys MikeCAdministrator   Mon Sep 03 2018 11:56 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gordon forms Near the Florida Keys doug   Mon Sep 03 2018 11:40 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gordon forms Near the Florida Keys MikeCAdministrator   Mon Sep 03 2018 10:41 AM

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