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Today is the last day of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. 8 landfalls including Ida, but no landfalls in the late season.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 85 (Nicholas) , Major: 100 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1154 (Michael) Major: 1154 (Michael)
 


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Isaac
      Tue Sep 11 2018 04:06 AM

Quote:

Not to get away from Florence, but does Isaac have a chance to make it through the graveyard and what is going to stop him from making a curve west north west or northwest.




This is a really important question for us to be considering here in the Lounge and thank you for bringing it up, B.C.

So Isaac has been a bugger for NHC all along - the least reliable model guidance. Huge spreads. Vastly different among many members and runs with regard to intensities, and tracks.

But it looks like the not-very-favorable, but just-favorable-enough environment will continue, with the chance of either becoming a Major within the next 3 or 4 days, or devolving into a wave, decreasing. This suggests that a continued track generally west for the next 3 to 4 days as either a Trop Storm or Cat 1 Hur looks reasonable, and a composite of the 0z model runs seems to bear that out as a general consensus.

After days 3, 4 or 5 is where things get ... different. Big spreads again. However, I would posit that there is a model averaged implied just over 60% chance that Isaac retains coherence as a Tropical Cyclone beyond his trip up to or into the graveyard (I say 'up to,' because there looks to be a slight, but non-negligible chance Isaac hooks right (north) prior to entering the Caribbean). And maybe even a 75% chance of continuing on past Day 5, if allowing for a period of having fallen apart, but only to come back together again at some point within a roughly 4 to 8 day window from now.

In summary, if these best educated guesses are about right, Isaac (or his remnant) may be much more one to watch than not beyond just his trip to the Antilles.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Isaac Lounge cieldumortModerator Tue Sep 11 2018 04:06 AM
. * * Re: Isaac Lounge cieldumortModerator   Mon Sep 17 2018 02:45 AM
. * * Re: Isaac Lounge cieldumortModerator   Mon Sep 17 2018 12:30 PM
. * * Re: Isaac Lounge cieldumortModerator   Sun Sep 16 2018 06:41 PM
. * * Re: Isaac Lounge cieldumortModerator   Sun Sep 16 2018 05:43 PM
. * * Invest Isaac cieldumortModerator   Sat Sep 15 2018 06:38 PM
. * * Re: Isaac danielwAdministrator   Mon Sep 10 2018 05:49 PM
. * * Re: Isaac JMII   Mon Sep 10 2018 09:47 PM
. * * Isaac B.C.Francis   Mon Sep 10 2018 05:15 PM
. * * Re: Isaac cieldumortModerator   Tue Sep 11 2018 04:06 AM
. * * Re: Isaac JMII   Tue Sep 11 2018 10:27 PM
. * * Re: Isaac JMII   Wed Sep 12 2018 08:22 PM
. * * Re: Isaac OrlandoDan   Thu Sep 13 2018 06:04 AM
. * * Re: Isaac IsoFlame   Fri Sep 14 2018 06:13 PM
. * * Re: Isaac cieldumortModerator   Mon Sep 10 2018 09:34 PM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge cieldumortModerator   Wed Sep 05 2018 05:28 AM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge cieldumortModerator   Wed Sep 05 2018 11:34 AM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge MissBecky   Thu Sep 06 2018 05:36 AM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 06 2018 07:08 AM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge OrlandoDan   Sun Sep 09 2018 06:54 AM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Sep 09 2018 08:44 AM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Sep 09 2018 08:22 PM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge JMII   Mon Sep 10 2018 01:47 PM
. * * Re: New: E ATL Wave MikeCAdministrator   Mon Sep 03 2018 09:47 AM

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