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Re: Isaac
      Fri Sep 14 2018 06:13 PM

Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018

It has been a very interesting flight of the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft this afternoon. Dropsonde and SFMR data indicate that the maximum winds are around 35 kt again, and the pressure has fallen to about 1002 mb. However, the system is tilted southward with vertical height due to northerly shear, and scatterometer and Hurricane Hunter tail-Doppler radar data indicate the system is elongated from northeast to southwest, albeit closed. Note that the plane was unable to sample the southwestern quadrant well because of strong convection and intense lightning, so the flight-level winds showing no circulation were unrepresentative.

The intensity forecast hasn't gotten any easier with Isaac.Vertical shear is expected to decrease a bit more, which might
diminish the effects of dry air seen on water vapor images around the cyclone. However, the GFS and ECMWF continue to insist that Isaac will degenerate into a wave within the next 2 or 3 days, which is almost unanimously supported by their respective ensemble members. This is the solution that the official forecast follows. It should be noted that none of the global models show pressures this low now with Isaac, except the UKMET, and that model is the one that holds onto the circulation the longest. The reality of the situation is that the long-term future of Isaac is cloudy, and the best advice is just to follow NHC advisories every 6 hours to see if we gain any confidence.

Isaac is moving westward at about 12 kt. A ridge over the southwestern Atlantic should steer the cyclone westward over the weekend then west-northwestward early next week as Isaac reaches a weaker portion of the ridge. Just like yesterday, a stronger system would likely turn more to the west-northwest earlier, moving closer to Jamaica. Since the system is forecast to be weaker, the forecast lies on the westward and faster side of the guidance, and should also be considered low confidence since it depends on the intensity. Interests in Jamaica should monitor the progress of the
Isaac.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 15.3N 68.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 15.4N 70.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 15.4N 72.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 15.7N 74.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 16.2N 76.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 17.5N 80.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Isaac Lounge cieldumortModerator Fri Sep 14 2018 06:13 PM
. * * Re: Isaac Lounge cieldumortModerator   Mon Sep 17 2018 02:45 AM
. * * Re: Isaac Lounge cieldumortModerator   Mon Sep 17 2018 12:30 PM
. * * Re: Isaac Lounge cieldumortModerator   Sun Sep 16 2018 06:41 PM
. * * Re: Isaac Lounge cieldumortModerator   Sun Sep 16 2018 05:43 PM
. * * Invest Isaac cieldumortModerator   Sat Sep 15 2018 06:38 PM
. * * Re: Isaac danielwAdministrator   Mon Sep 10 2018 05:49 PM
. * * Re: Isaac JMII   Mon Sep 10 2018 09:47 PM
. * * Isaac B.C.Francis   Mon Sep 10 2018 05:15 PM
. * * Re: Isaac cieldumortModerator   Tue Sep 11 2018 04:06 AM
. * * Re: Isaac JMII   Tue Sep 11 2018 10:27 PM
. * * Re: Isaac JMII   Wed Sep 12 2018 08:22 PM
. * * Re: Isaac OrlandoDan   Thu Sep 13 2018 06:04 AM
. * * Re: Isaac IsoFlame   Fri Sep 14 2018 06:13 PM
. * * Re: Isaac cieldumortModerator   Mon Sep 10 2018 09:34 PM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge cieldumortModerator   Wed Sep 05 2018 05:28 AM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge cieldumortModerator   Wed Sep 05 2018 11:34 AM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge MissBecky   Thu Sep 06 2018 05:36 AM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 06 2018 07:08 AM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge OrlandoDan   Sun Sep 09 2018 06:54 AM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Sep 09 2018 08:44 AM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Sep 09 2018 08:22 PM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge JMII   Mon Sep 10 2018 01:47 PM
. * * Re: New: E ATL Wave MikeCAdministrator   Mon Sep 03 2018 09:47 AM

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