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94L organizing well east of the Caribbean with a high chance of developing. NW Gulf also an area to watch next week. Busy for June.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 285 (Nicholas) , Major: 301 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1355 (Michael) Major: 1355 (Michael)

Archives 2010s >> 2018 Forecast Lounge


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2127
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Isaac Lounge
      Mon Sep 17 2018 02:45 AM

09/17 0z models are rolling in. So far, one concerning. The rest, not so much.

HWRF - TD by 09z Tuesday. Tracks through Straits of Yucatán, clipping extreme western Cuba, as a 999mb Tropical Storm early Wednesday. Enters southern Gulf Wednesday afternoon and begins deepening at a healthy clip. 979mb Cat 2 hurricane by 06z Friday in the central Gulf. 975mb Cat 3 Major by 18z Friday south of Louisiana.

HMON - Basically analyzes Invest Isaac as a TD already, and thus initializes the run as such. Devolves into a wave that appears to track into the Gulf though end of run.

GFS - 0z begins as a sloppy open wave. Eventually crosses into Mexico by 0z Sat without developing.

FV3 GFS - 0z begins as a sloppy mostly open wave. Washes out in the Bay of Campeche by 06z Friday.

ICON - 0z begins with mostly closed 1008mb Low centered just east of Jamaica. Opens/closes/opens/closes and stays weak across Straits of Yucatán, finally stalling out and closing back off near Corpus Christi, TX by 09z Sunday. Washes out over deep south Tx as a likely heavy rain maker.

CMC - 0z begins as a sloppy open wave, after having analyzed it as closed off during the day Sunday. Closes back off by 18z Monday with a 1010mb Low. Opens and closes again. Closed weak Low in southern Gulf by 18z Wednesday. Remains mostly wavy with vort max tracking into SE TX by 18z Friday.

ECMWF - 0z begins as a weak closed Low centered just southeast of Jamaica. Opens back up and splits in two by 0z Thursday. By 0z Friday the southern extent of trof crosses Yucatan and into BoC, with the northern branch tracking across Keys. Breezy showers likely for each location, but no tropical cyclone.

ECMWF Ensemble-implied probability of TCG within 72 hours (from 09/16/12z run): 25%

As a side note, after looking good throughout the day Sunday and into early night, Invest Isaac looks to be getting hit with some northerly shear, having not tracked west enough yesterday to avoid it, and is on a dramatic weakening trend at this time.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Isaac Lounge cieldumortModerator Mon Sep 17 2018 02:45 AM
. * * Re: Isaac Lounge cieldumortModerator   Mon Sep 17 2018 02:45 AM
. * * Re: Isaac Lounge cieldumortModerator   Mon Sep 17 2018 12:30 PM
. * * Re: Isaac Lounge cieldumortModerator   Sun Sep 16 2018 06:41 PM
. * * Re: Isaac Lounge cieldumortModerator   Sun Sep 16 2018 05:43 PM
. * * Invest Isaac cieldumortModerator   Sat Sep 15 2018 06:38 PM
. * * Re: Isaac danielwAdministrator   Mon Sep 10 2018 05:49 PM
. * * Re: Isaac JMII   Mon Sep 10 2018 09:47 PM
. * * Isaac B.C.Francis   Mon Sep 10 2018 05:15 PM
. * * Re: Isaac cieldumortModerator   Tue Sep 11 2018 04:06 AM
. * * Re: Isaac JMII   Tue Sep 11 2018 10:27 PM
. * * Re: Isaac JMII   Wed Sep 12 2018 08:22 PM
. * * Re: Isaac OrlandoDan   Thu Sep 13 2018 06:04 AM
. * * Re: Isaac IsoFlame   Fri Sep 14 2018 06:13 PM
. * * Re: Isaac cieldumortModerator   Mon Sep 10 2018 09:34 PM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge cieldumortModerator   Wed Sep 05 2018 05:28 AM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge cieldumortModerator   Wed Sep 05 2018 11:34 AM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge MissBecky   Thu Sep 06 2018 05:36 AM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 06 2018 07:08 AM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge OrlandoDan   Sun Sep 09 2018 06:54 AM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Sep 09 2018 08:44 AM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Sep 09 2018 08:22 PM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge JMII   Mon Sep 10 2018 01:47 PM
. * * Re: New: E ATL Wave MikeCAdministrator   Mon Sep 03 2018 09:47 AM

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