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Very quiet now as shear and dry Saharan air cover much of the Atlantic
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 294 (Nicholas) , Major: 310 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1364 (Michael) Major: 1364 (Michael)
 


Archives 2010s >> 2018 Forecast Lounge

cieldumortModerator
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Re: Central American Gyre
      Thu Oct 04 2018 04:23 AM

Oct 4 0z model rundown sitll favors development of at least one system from this parent gyre.

NHC presently near 0% >48 hours, and 30% >120 hours.

ECMWF ensembles Implied Probability of Genesis in the NW Carib is now 80% within 120 hours.

There may be a trend in the models to work with the LLC being tracked in earlier posts. It has turned out so far to be a tenacious little bugger, still hanging on despite 40 KTS westerly shear. So it looks possible it may be our first CAG-related Invest after all (TBD).

ECMWF - Genesis by 0z Tues Oct 9 over the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, becoming a 993 MB Tropical Storm in the north-central to northeastern Gulf next weekend.

GFS - 1st System: 998 MB tiny Trop Storm in the far East Pac landfalling on southern Guatemala by 6z Oct 9. 2nd System: Inverted Trof pushing inland into Louisiana on Wed Oct 10. 3rd System: New Tropical Low in central Caribbean by Oct 15.

GFS FV3 - 1st System: Genesis just offshore of Tampa, Fl by 06z Oct 10 as a 1003 MB Trop Storm, making final landfall as a Cat 2 near Pensacola by 12z Oct 12. 2nd System: 999 MB Trop Storm just south of Isthmus of Tehuantepec by 12z Oct 16. 3rd System: 1005 MB Low nearing the Straits of Florida Oct 16.

CMC - Genesis just offshore of Belize by 0z Oct 7 as a 1003 MB TD, making final landfall as a Cat 1 near Mississippi/Alabama border 06z Oct 12.

NAVY - Genesis between northern Yucatan and western Cuba by 0z Oct 8, making final landfall as a Cat 1 near Biloxi, Ms by 18z Oct 10.

ICON - 1st System: 1007 MB TD forming just south of Guatemala by Oct 6, heading NW. 2nd System: Meager T.D. or Tropical Low forming south of Cuba by Oct 7, tracking north as a weak system to end of run on Oct 11 around the Straits of Florida.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* C Am. Gyre (91L, 97E, 94L etc) cieldumortModerator Thu Oct 04 2018 04:23 AM
. * * Re: Central American Gyre (91L, 97E, etc) cieldumortModerator   Fri Oct 12 2018 10:45 AM
. * * Re: Central American Gyre (91L, 97E, etc) IsoFlame   Sat Oct 13 2018 07:02 AM
. * * Re: Central American Gyre (91L, 97E, etc) IsoFlame   Fri Oct 12 2018 12:40 PM
. * * Re: Central American Gyre (91L, 97E, etc) IsoFlame   Fri Oct 12 2018 12:49 PM
. * * Re: Central American Gyre (91L, 97E, etc) cieldumortModerator   Sun Oct 07 2018 05:04 PM
. * * Re: Central American Gyre (91L, 97E, etc) cieldumortModerator   Sat Oct 06 2018 02:24 AM
. * * Re: Central American Gyre cieldumortModerator   Fri Oct 05 2018 02:36 PM
. * * Re: Central American Gyre cieldumortModerator   Fri Oct 05 2018 03:52 AM
. * * Re: Central American Gyre MikeCAdministrator   Fri Oct 05 2018 01:19 PM
. * * Re: Central American Gyre MikeCAdministrator   Fri Oct 05 2018 06:41 AM
. * * Re: Central American Gyre MikeCAdministrator   Fri Oct 05 2018 09:26 AM
. * * Re: Central American Gyre cieldumortModerator   Fri Oct 05 2018 01:37 AM
. * * Re: Central American Gyre cieldumortModerator   Thu Oct 04 2018 01:57 PM
. * * Re: Central American Gyre Keith B   Thu Oct 04 2018 07:42 PM
. * * Re: Central American Gyre cieldumortModerator   Thu Oct 04 2018 04:23 AM
. * * Re: Central American Gyre MikeCAdministrator   Thu Oct 04 2018 08:13 AM
. * * Re: Central American Gyre cieldumortModerator   Wed Oct 03 2018 05:26 AM
. * * Re: Possible Caribbean Dev Early Oct cieldumortModerator   Tue Oct 02 2018 04:52 PM
. * * Re: Possible Caribbean Dev Early Oct cieldumortModerator   Tue Oct 02 2018 02:32 PM
. * * Re: Possible Caribbean Dev Early Oct cieldumortModerator   Mon Oct 01 2018 05:19 PM
. * * Re: Possible Caribbean Dev Early Oct IsoFlame   Tue Oct 02 2018 10:05 AM
. * * Re: Possible Caribbean Dev Early Oct cieldumortModerator   Wed Oct 03 2018 12:15 PM
. * * Re: Possible Caribbean Dev Early Oct cieldumortModerator   Sun Sep 30 2018 11:57 PM
. * * Re: Possible Caribbean Dev Early Oct MikeCAdministrator   Sun Sep 30 2018 07:09 PM
. * * Re: Possible Caribbean Dev Early Oct IsoFlame   Sun Sep 30 2018 10:46 PM

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