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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 300 (Idalia) , Major: 300 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 300 (Idalia) Major: 300 (Idalia)
 


Archives 2010s >> 2018 News Talkbacks

cieldumort
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Posts: 2322
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Tropical Storm Michael forms in Western Caribbean
      Sun Oct 07 2018 03:23 PM

I think given that center jumps into the deeper convection being displaced to the east by shear may continue until net effective shear should start to really relax, safe to say that those in the Lower Keys and also Florida's west coast may want to begin paying much closer attention. These locations are going to be on the dirty side of the storm, regardless.

First Vortex Message:
Quote:

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 18:52Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305
Tropical Depression: Fourteen (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 07

A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 18:14:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18.89N 86.24W
B. Center Fix Location: 137 statute miles (221 km) to the E (79°) from Chetumal, Quintana Roo, Mexico.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 714m (2,343ft) at 925mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg) - Extrapolated
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 40kts (46.0mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 57 nautical miles (66 statute miles) to the N (3°) of center fix at 17:52:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 87° at 42kts (From the E at 48.3mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 70 nautical miles (81 statute miles) to the N (10°) of center fix at 17:48:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 39kts (44.9mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 81 nautical miles (93 statute miles) to the SE (133°) of center fix at 18:39:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 225° at 48kts (From the SW at 55.2mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 105 nautical miles (121 statute miles) to the SE (133°) of center fix at 18:47:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 766m (2,513ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 757m (2,484ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 925mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 7 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 48kts (~ 55.2mph) which was observed 105 nautical miles (121 statute miles) to the SE (133°) from the flight level center at 18:47:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb




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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Major Hurricane Michael Approaches the Panhandle cieldumort Sun Oct 07 2018 03:23 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Michael Approaches the Panhandle primpraw23   Sun Nov 18 2018 03:01 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Michael Approaches the Panhandle danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 11 2018 09:07 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Michael Approaches the Panhandle MikeCAdministrator   Thu Oct 11 2018 08:30 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Michael Approaches the Panhandle kspkap   Wed Oct 10 2018 12:36 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Michael Approaches the Panhandle MikeCAdministrator   Wed Oct 10 2018 12:22 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Michael Approaches the Panhandle Bloodstar   Wed Oct 10 2018 12:22 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Michael Approaches the Panhandle Kraig   Wed Oct 10 2018 11:50 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Michael Approaches the Panhandle MikeCAdministrator   Wed Oct 10 2018 09:30 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Michael Approaches the Panhandle Kraig   Wed Oct 10 2018 07:52 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Michael Approaches the Panhandle MikeCAdministrator   Wed Oct 10 2018 07:52 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Michael Approaches the Panhandle MikeCAdministrator   Wed Oct 10 2018 07:33 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Michael Approaches the Panhandle MikeCAdministrator   Wed Oct 10 2018 07:27 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Michael Approaches the Panhandle cieldumort   Wed Oct 10 2018 07:22 AM
. * * Re: Michael's Watches and Warnings Now Extend 100s of Miles MikeCAdministrator   Tue Oct 09 2018 11:02 PM
. * * Re: Michael's Watches and Warnings Now Extend 100s of Miles MikeCAdministrator   Tue Oct 09 2018 10:26 PM
. * * Re: Michael's Watches and Warnings Now Extend 100s of Miles MikeCAdministrator   Tue Oct 09 2018 10:24 PM
. * * Re: Michael's Watches and Warnings Now Extend 100s of Miles Joeyfl   Tue Oct 09 2018 08:53 PM
. * * Re: Michael's Watches and Warnings Now Extend 100s of Miles MikeCAdministrator   Tue Oct 09 2018 08:36 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Michael Approaches the Panhandle cieldumort   Tue Oct 09 2018 08:21 PM
. * * Re: Michael's Watches and Warnings Now Extend 100s of Miles MikeCAdministrator   Tue Oct 09 2018 05:11 PM
. * * Re: Michael's Watches and Warnings Now Extend 100s of Miles MikeCAdministrator   Tue Oct 09 2018 02:59 PM
. * * Re: Michael's Watches and Warnings Now Extend 100s of Miles cieldumort   Tue Oct 09 2018 10:12 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches issued for parts of Florida danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 09 2018 06:54 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches issued for parts of Florida cieldumort   Tue Oct 09 2018 05:04 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches issued for parts of Florida MikeCAdministrator   Mon Oct 08 2018 09:46 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches issued for parts of Florida MikeCAdministrator   Mon Oct 08 2018 07:33 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches issued for parts of Florida kspkap   Mon Oct 08 2018 06:00 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches issued for parts of Florida MikeCAdministrator   Mon Oct 08 2018 04:05 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches issued for parts of Florida MikeCAdministrator   Mon Oct 08 2018 01:20 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches issued for parts of Florida MikeCAdministrator   Mon Oct 08 2018 12:45 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches issued for parts of Florida MikeCAdministrator   Mon Oct 08 2018 10:55 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches issued for parts of Florida Joeyfl   Mon Oct 08 2018 10:14 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches issued for parts of Florida MikeCAdministrator   Mon Oct 08 2018 10:11 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches issued for parts of Florida MikeCAdministrator   Mon Oct 08 2018 09:48 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches issued for parts of Florida MikeCAdministrator   Mon Oct 08 2018 09:21 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Michael forms in Western Caribbean MikeCAdministrator   Mon Oct 08 2018 06:13 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Michael forms in Western Caribbean MikeCAdministrator   Sun Oct 07 2018 06:27 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Michael forms in Western Caribbean MikeCAdministrator   Sun Oct 07 2018 04:24 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Michael forms in Western Caribbean cieldumort   Sun Oct 07 2018 03:23 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Michael forms in Western Caribbean MikeCAdministrator   Sun Oct 07 2018 03:16 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Michael forms in Western Caribbean MikeCAdministrator   Sun Oct 07 2018 01:19 PM
. * * Re: October - A Month Favoring Systems Close to Home MikeCAdministrator   Sun Oct 07 2018 05:46 AM

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