cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Major Hurricane Michael Approaches the Panhandle
Tue Oct 09 2018 08:21 PM
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While not what NHC is yet calling for, it's my personal estimation that Michael will become a Cat 4 and maybe a Cat 5. Normally I would put this into the lounge, but there is such solid data to back it up now, it is reasonable to include here. Just within the past hour the eye really closed off and became encircled with -80C cloud tops, a phenomenal and very unnerving development. The hurricane now almost resembles T 7.0 monsters we have seen rarely before. In fact, ADT updated with a correct eye location, and using a p/eye scene, Raw T jumped right to 6.9
This is a hurricane that has been overachieving all along, and continues to do so tonight. In addition, it held its own throughout the day while traveling over a very large cool eddy in the southern Gulf that it is now moving away from. The SSTs under Michael have gone from 24C to now a 26 to 29 range, and are set to stay around there right through landfall, save just along the coast.
Another thing, many model runs early on were suggesting that min pressure would go quite low, but that the hurricane would respond less in terms of sustained wind than usual. A recent example of that phenomenon was Florence. However, this has not turned out to be the case with Michael, and many of these very same models, having caught up to this, bring Michael unquestionably into Cat 4 prior to landfall, and suggest higher is within the realm of real possibility.
If you are in the evac zones of Michael, this is no storm to play chicken in.
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