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Archives 2010s >> 2018 Forecast Lounge

cieldumortModerator
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Michael Lounge
      Sun Oct 14 2018 05:23 PM

Quote:

Looking back at the model runs, it seems like the CMC and the NAV picked up on this storm pretty early but not the other models. Is there any significance to that?




These two models often run hot, and in the case of the NAV, also rather simplistic, making it easier to "see" things forming early on whether or not a more thorough examination might otherwise exclude them from developing.

All in all, once formed, models did do exceptionally well with regard to landfall location. As usual, intensity remains the biggest challenge for the models. An ERC never occurred, which was always a distinct possibility, and which could have knocked landfall down from the well-advertised "Major" to something more like a Cat 1/2. Thus Michael continued to take full advantage of the ocean-atmosphere environment, which was super supportive.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Michael Lounge cieldumortModerator Sun Oct 14 2018 05:23 PM
. * * Re: Michael Lounge Owlguin   Fri Oct 12 2018 01:03 PM
. * * Re: Michael Lounge cieldumortModerator   Sun Oct 14 2018 05:23 PM
. * * Re: Michael Lounge cieldumortModerator   Tue Oct 09 2018 02:54 PM
. * * Re: Michael Lounge cieldumortModerator   Tue Oct 09 2018 02:46 PM
. * * Re: Michael Lounge cieldumortModerator   Mon Oct 08 2018 04:34 AM
. * * Re: Michael Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Oct 08 2018 05:27 AM
. * * Re: Michael Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Oct 08 2018 05:58 AM
. * * Re: Michael Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Oct 08 2018 06:36 AM
. * * Re: Michael Lounge dolfinatic   Mon Oct 08 2018 10:04 AM
. * * Re: Michael Lounge Bev   Mon Oct 08 2018 09:56 AM
. * * Re: Michael Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Oct 08 2018 10:06 AM
. * * Re: Michael Lounge doug   Mon Oct 08 2018 11:06 AM
. * * Re: Michael Lounge IsoFlame   Mon Oct 08 2018 12:39 PM
. * * Re: Michael Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Oct 08 2018 12:54 PM
. * * Re: Michael Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Oct 08 2018 07:24 PM
. * * Re: Michael Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Oct 09 2018 03:51 PM
. * * Re: Michael Lounge lunkerhunter   Wed Oct 10 2018 08:13 PM
. * * Re: Michael Lounge lunkerhunter   Mon Oct 08 2018 09:57 PM
. * * Re: Michael Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Oct 09 2018 07:27 AM
. * * Re: Michael Lounge tracerrx   Mon Oct 08 2018 04:14 PM
. * * Re: Michael Lounge craigm   Mon Oct 08 2018 06:11 PM
. * * Re: Michael Lounge cieldumortModerator   Mon Oct 08 2018 03:58 AM
. * * Re: NEW: 91L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Oct 05 2018 03:12 PM
. * * Re: NEW: 91L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Oct 05 2018 06:59 PM
. * * Re: NEW: 91L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Oct 06 2018 06:08 AM
. * * Re: NEW: 91L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Oct 06 2018 01:57 PM
. * * Re: NEW: 91L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Oct 07 2018 04:19 AM
. * * Re: NEW: 91L Lounge Joeyfl   Sun Oct 07 2018 06:02 AM
. * * Re: NEW: 91L Lounge Prospero   Sun Oct 07 2018 06:19 AM
. * * Re: NEW: 91L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Oct 07 2018 05:58 AM
. * * Re: NEW: 91L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Oct 07 2018 11:53 AM
. * * Re: NEW: 91L Lounge EMS   Sun Oct 07 2018 02:55 PM
. * * Re: NEW: 91L Lounge cieldumortModerator   Sun Oct 07 2018 03:48 PM
. * * Re: NEW: 91L Lounge MichaelA   Sun Oct 07 2018 05:01 PM
. * * Re: NEW: 91L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Oct 07 2018 05:55 PM
. * * Re: NEW: 91L Lounge MichaelA   Sun Oct 07 2018 06:09 PM
. * * Re: NEW: 91L Lounge Joeyfl   Sun Oct 07 2018 05:54 PM
. * * Re: NEW: 91L Lounge cieldumortModerator   Sun Oct 07 2018 03:38 PM

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