Loc: Orlando, FL
Hurricane Barry forms in Gulf of Mexico
Wed Jul 10 2019 10:53 AM
10:00 AM CDT 13 July 2019 Update
Hurricane Barry forms in the Gulf just as it makes landfall in the Central Louisiana coastline. Despite being very lopsided to the south and southeast, Buoy, Aircraft, Rig reports have found Barry has reached hurricane strength. Rainfall once the southern portion arrives will be the largest threat, those north and west of the center will likely hardly notice anything.
However the southern section does extend fairly far west, so Tropical storm warnings have been extended westward to Sabine Pass.
6:30 PM CDT 12 July 2019 Update
Barry's structure has improved throughout the day Friday, with progressively stronger surface winds the closer one is to the very center. In addition, upper-level outflow has improved in all quadrants, and most importantly so, in the northern half of the cyclone. Barry is now a fully tropical Tropical Cyclone and by all accounts, likely maturing into a hurricane before landfall.
While not expected, Barry, likely to be a full-fledged and not fledgling, dangerous TC before landfall, could strengthen even more than forecast with so much of it over anomalously warm Gulf waters. With high-end tropical storm to full hurricane-force gusts likely to push inland, given all the rain on the way, trees will fall. Easily. Wind-related injuries and fatalities are often from falling trees and branches.
The greatest threat by far is coming in the way of life-threatening, flooding rain that could continue for an extended duration. Anyone who has remained in areas prone to flooding should be rushing to completion efforts to protect life and property, if not evacuating if so advised by local authorities. Flooding in this event may exceed all previous records in several places.
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
421 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019 Day 2 Valid 12Z Sat Jul 13 2019 - 12Z Sun Jul 14 2019
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF NEW ORLEANS AND BATON ROUGE...
...Central Gulf Coast and Lower Mississippi Valley...
Extreme rainfall will likely lead to significant and life-threatening flash flooding from coastal LA into southwestern MS and the LA/MS border from Saturday into Sunday.
10:30 AM CDT 12 July 2019 Update
Barry is doing a run on strengthening today, but it still a fairly sloppy system, although the primary center is not expected to make landfall until tomorrow morning, a strong are of convection currently on south side of the center likely will rotate around and up over the Louisiana coastline and near New Orleans, likely late afternoon or evening. This will bring heavy rain and surge into the areas. Lake Pontchartrain is now under a storm Surge Warning.
10 AM CDT 11 July 2019 Update
Tropical Storm Barry has formed
6 AM CDT 11 July 2019 Update
Recon failed to find enough orgnaiztion to upgrade the system overnight, but it still remains close to becoming a tropical depression or storm this morning. The track was adjusted slightly in central Louisiana bringing more eastern side rains potentially to New Orleans.
The recon flying right now is finding lower pressures (1003 mb) and a bit more organizatio9n which implies an upgrade may happen sooner than later.
This system is mostly going to be a rain maker, although a hurricane at landfall is still forecast by late tomorrow or Saturday morning. Because the system has not properly formed there is still a great deal o9f uncertainty in he official forecast
Those in the watch area should pay attention to local media and officials for informatio9n specific to their area.
8:30PM CDT July 10, 2019 Update
PTC TWO looks to have completed Tropical Cyclogenesis, or is right on the cusp of doing so, and may easily be a named, and fully tropical, storm, Thursday. This is a particularly dangerous situation, with the risk of extreme inland flooding high. Barry may even cause overtopping Saturday of the Mississippi river levee in the Lower 9th Ward, Algiers and St. Bernard Parish. Even though 92L/proto-Barry is "not (yet) named," preparations along its path to protect life and property should now be underway. Time is limited, and at some point evacuation routes, hotels, shelters, stores and such may be completely inaccessible.
Further discussion and speculation for potential impacts and future track of proto-Barry can be found in the TWO/Barry Forecast Lounge.
Potential Tropical Storm 2 Advisory issued, Hurricane forecast for Louisiana Saturday midday.
The idea of potential advisories is to allow for official watches and warnings even before a storm has properly formed if it will impact land areas.
Flooding rainfall has already occurred in New Orleans and more is on the way to potentially the worst flooding there since 1927. More to come soon.
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from the Mouth of the Pearl River to Morgan City, Louisiana.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Morgan City, Louisiana.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Mouth of the Pearl River to Morgan City...3 to 5 ft
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches near and inland of the central Gulf Coast through early next week, with isolated maximum rainfall amounts of 18 inches.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Thursday or early Friday.
MesoScale Satellite of Barry
Louisiana Power Outage Map