cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Tropical Storm Barry forms in Gulf of Mexico
Thu Jul 11 2019 01:27 PM
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Recon still finding a wind structure that more closely resembles that of a hybrid storm, than one classically tropical. In the screenshot below (original credit Tropical Tidbits) I've drawn circles around what are roughly "belts" of wind intensities. The current order of things, with the belts of progressively stronger winds further removed from the calm center, is the opposite of what one expects to see in a classic TC, and as such, there may be some continued abnormally large fits and starts until this reverse order flips (with the strongest winds encircling the calm center, and not at the extremities).
As an aside, the two center fixes in the image above may give the incorrect impression of a northwesterly motion. In fact the second fix in this image was the one to the southeast. In reality, the fixed center is likely just hopping around, wobbling, or perhaps rotating a bit cyclonically within what is still a relatively broad center. And in general, it's usually not a good idea to extrapolate too much from just a few fixes in any system, let alone a messy, new one, anyway.
Recon is currently passing through Barry's center for a third time, and as of 12:45PM CDT seems to be about to fly into the prominent northernmost lobe/swirl, which has since rotated about the mean center and looks to be getting subsumed. These small-scale features can somtimes have outsized influence over future tracks and intensities.
Edited by cieldumort (Thu Jul 11 2019 01:59 PM)
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