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Invest 97L has dropped to 30% chance of development over the next 5 days. Watching as it rapidly moves west over the Atlantic.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 331 (Nicholas) , Major: 346 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1400 (Michael) Major: 1400 (Michael)

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Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Invest 90L Lounge (W Gulf)
      Sat Aug 24 2019 03:00 PM

NHC began tracking the area of Low pressure in the northwest Gulf as Invest 90L today.

As of 1700z, 90L was analyzed at 29.5N 93.8W, or about 12 miles south of the Tx/La border, with winds of about 20 KTS and a minimum pressure of 1012 hPa. This initialization appears to have been where the northernmost lobe (see image above) was located at that time. Since then, this lobe has moved inland (shown in image above).

With the northernmost and primary surface lobe center now inland, but with a large area of broader vorticity still located offshore, it remains to be seen if the persistent area of deep convection and occasional pressure falls still noted offshore sustain, and possibly recenter the primary area of interest.

Upper-levels support and even favor potential redevelopment further south over very warm water
(image below from CIMSS)

Low shear still offshore (green) vs moderate shear near the coast and just inland (red) and higher divergence (yellow with values 20 and above), may work with that preexisting broad vorticty at the surface, as well as the enhanced surface convergence (blue).

In summary, although the lobe NHC began tracking midday has already pushed inland, troffiness remains offshore in a favorable regime, and regardless of development, SE-TX/LA and points offshore will likely continue to be very wet and occasionally blustery this weekend, with thunderstorms, some strong to severe, and waterspouts all a risk.

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* Invest 90L Lounge (W Gulf) cieldumortModerator Sat Aug 24 2019 03:00 PM
. * * Re: Invest 90L Lounge (W Gulf) cieldumortModerator   Sat Aug 24 2019 03:00 PM

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