MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Category 5 Hurricane Dorian Grand Bahama Island
Sun Sep 01 2019 09:46 AM
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11:00 AM EDT Update 2 September 2019
Hurricane Dorian is still sitting over Grand Bahamas island barely moving, and an eyewall replacement and land interaction has reduced it to 155mph winds (High end Cat 4). It's expected to remain a Major hurricane through Wednesday and the tropical storm force wind field likely will expand as it does.
The track has shifted slightly west closer to Florida, but landfall is not expected in Florida, however any slight deviation to the left when motion begins could bring stronger winds onshore. As it stands now based on the official tack, hurricane force winds will be felt along parts of the coast of Florida, even if landfall does not happen. Tropical Storm force winds could reach well inland. Note, most impacts would not be felt in central Florida until TOMORROW night. Although bands will gradually move onshore through today and tomorrow, from the south and spreading north.
The Hurricane Warning along the east coast of Florida has been extended northward to the Flagler/Volusia County Line.
The Hurricane Watch has been extended northward to Altamaha Sound Georgia.
7:00 AM Update 2 September 2019
Hurricane Dorian has begun the stall forecast by the hurricane center today, and the eye is currently over the eastern part of Grand Bahamas island, where it, unfortunately, will probably remain for a good part of today. It is still category 5 hurricane, but weakening slightly due to an eyewall replacement cycle going on right now, as well as some land interaction with the island.
The forecast track takes it east of Florida, but close enough to bring hurricane conditions some some ares and is indicated by the watches and warnings, the wind field may expand so Tropical Storm force winds could expand west though much of the center of the state. Any significant motion isn't expected until late tonight, so today will be a waiting game. Storm Surge and erosion will likely be a large problem for the east coast of Florida in the warning area, and up into the Carolinas later. Rainfall will likely be great in many places as well, particularly closer to the coast.
Some of the outer rain bands will start moving over parts of Florida today.
Based on the forecast southern areas in the watch/warning area will begin to see the most around tomorrow afternoon, gradually spreading northward into Wednesday morning with forward speed increasing to the north. and by Thursday Georgia and parts of South Carolina, by Friday morning speed should have picked up greatly as it moves near/over North Carolina.
Nearly every model keeps Dorian offshore, but very close to Florida, however even a slight shift west could bring it closer, or even over Florida. So today will be a waiting game for Florida, but a devastating day in the northwest Bahamas. Abaco island was hit very hard yesterday, and the storm is still close enough to prevent any mover relief efforts today, as it's still probably experiencing hurricane/tropical storm force winds in parts of Abaco.
5:00 PM Update 1 September 2019
Dorian is moving generally west at 5MPH, heading toward Grand Bahama island.
A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Lantana to the Volusia/Brevard County Line.
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from the Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line.
A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line
A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Jupiter Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line.
4-7 feet Surge in some areas in the storm surge warning area..
12:50 PM Update 1 September 2019
Maximum sustained Winds increased to 185MPH, 911mb pressure with a special advisory. Still moving W at 8mph.
Hazards include
- Wind Gusts over 220 mph
- Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves
11:15 AM Update 1 September 2019
Hurricane Dorian up to 180mph winds.
Track shifts slightly west, enough to require Hurricane Watches up for the east coast from Deerfield to Volusia/Brevard county line. A Storm Surge Watch has also been issued from north of Deerfield
Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Lake Okeechobee.
Surge projections currently have 1-2 feet by West Palm up to 4-7 ft in Brevard county.
Original Update
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Dorian has continued to intensify, and now has maximum sustained winds near 175 mph (280 km/h), with a minimum central pressure of 922 mb (27.23 inches).
The eyewall of catastrophic Hurricane Dorian is currently reaching Abaco Island in the Bahamas. This is a life-threatening situation. Residents there should take immediate shelter. Do not venture into the eye if it passes over your location.
Hazards:
- Wind Gusts over 200 mph
- Storm Surge 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves
These hazards will cause extreme destruction in the affected areas. and will continue for several hours.
Watches and Warnings for Florida will likely be extended at 11AM. The system is expected to turn north after a large slowdown before Florida, but it will likely still be close enough for some impacts along the Florida east coast.
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