MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Dorian Finally on the Move
Tue Sep 03 2019 08:42 AM
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2:00PM Update September 4 2019
Dorian has made landfall on Hatteras, NC, flooding the outer banks from Ocracoke to Rodanthe and then some. The Canadian Hurricane Center has issued a Hurricane Warning for eastern Nova Scotia from Hubbards to Avonport.
11:00PM Update September 4 2019
Dorian has regained Category 3 hurricane strength.
9:30PM Update September 3 2019
Dorian continues NNW to NW tonight, tracking offshore and usually parallel to the east coast of Florida. This should continue until a couple of shortwaves recurve Dorian to the northeast by Thursday, putting the southeast, and in particular North Carolina, at risk for a direct hit.
The heart of the season continues with no less than three simultaneous Tropical Cyclones in the Atlantic: Fernand (W Gulf), TD8 (eastern Atlantic), and last but not least Dorian. By this time Thursday there could also be a fourth, as we are keeping an eye out on a new Tropical Wave expected to develop in the far eastern Atlantic and head west.
As a reminder, you can also follow along with more in-depth model discussions and more in the Forecast Lounge. If you can't find a Lounge you are looking for on the main page, simply look for the "Forums" tab (often in a bar on the left or right side of the main page), where you can usually find the very thread you are looking for. If posting to a Lounge, we ask that one refrain from going off-topic, or using unnecessary words. The idea is for us all to stay on point for a given Lounge, and not to delve into hype or wishcasting.
-Ciel
Current Forecast Lounges
Invest 94L Lounge , Tropical Storm Fernand Lounge (E MX/S TX) , Invest 92L Lounge (Bermuda Threat), Hurricane Dorian Lounge
Original Update
At the 8am advisory slow motion of Dorian to the Northwest has begun at 1mph, shown on the Florida radar, The same slow movement in Bahamas followed by a track close to but offshore of Florida has been forecast since Saturday morning.
Dorian is still impacting Grand Bahama and stationary but expected to begin to move toward the North Northwest later today, meanwhile, Tropical Storm Warnings are up along the northeast coast of Mexico The from La Pesca northward to Barra El Mezquital for newly designated Potential Tropical Cyclone 7 in the Gulf which may landfall as a Tropical Storm in Mexico tomorrow night.
Dorian's lack of forward motion has caused the water beneath it to cool enough to weaken it to a category 3, which is still a major hurricane, and still has the momentum in the waves and surge from being a much stronger storm which increases the storm surge impact along the coast. Dorian's weaker side is on the west, so that is in our favor, but it likely will get close enough to still bring plenty of Tropical Storm force winds and some hurricane force winds to parts of Florida. The size of the windfield has generally expanded.
Dorian's motion based on the forecast track should take it closest to Florida overnight tonight into tomorrow and be up near South Carolina by Thursday, and by North Carolina by early Friday morning. The National Hurricane center Although the official forecast does not show Dorian making landfall along the Florida east coast, users are reminded not to forecast on the exact forecast track. A relatively small deviation to the left of this track could bring the core of the hurricane near or over the coastline.
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Edited by cieldumort (Sun Sep 15 2019 10:51 AM)
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