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TD12 barely sustaining but Invest 91L causing serious flooding already and likely to become a named storm this week in W Carib
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 8 (Ian) , Major: 8 (Ian) Florida - Any: 8 (Ian) Major: 8 (Ian)
18.6N 36.8W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1010mb
Wnw at 17 mph
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12.3N 71.9W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1004mb
W at 15 mph
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Archives 2010s >> 2019 Forecast Lounge


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2178
Loc: Austin, Tx
Tropical Storm Nestor Lounge
      Wed Oct 16 2019 01:23 PM

A persistent trough now located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico continues to become better defined, and as it has moved from over land to over very warm waters, we are now starting a lounge on this feature, likely soon to be tagged an Invest (probably 96L).

Recon has been tasked to begin flying missions into this system Thursday, if necessary.

As of this morning, NHC has upped odds of tropical cyclone formation to 30% within 48 hours and 50% within 5 days. Considering recent trends this could be conservative. Movement is presently northerly, with a forecast motion more definitively to the northeast later this week, especially if the system develops, and it looks increasingly likely to bring heavy, potentially flooding rain, to portions of the southern US regardless of development.

More details and pictures coming.

*NHC 10/16/19 2PM EDT TWO update has gone up to 50%/50%
*This feature has now been Invest tagged, 96L.
*10:00 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019 96L is now PTC SIXTEEN
*2:00 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 SIXTEEN has become Tropical Storm Nestor

Edited by cieldumort (Fri Oct 18 2019 01:51 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Nestor Lounge cieldumortModerator Wed Oct 16 2019 01:23 PM
. * * Re: SIXTEEN Lounge cieldumortModerator   Thu Oct 17 2019 02:55 PM
. * * Re: SIXTEEN Lounge Prospero   Thu Oct 17 2019 08:41 PM
. * * Re: SIXTEEN Lounge doug   Fri Oct 18 2019 12:20 PM
. * * Re: SIXTEEN Lounge Genesis   Fri Oct 18 2019 01:36 PM
. * * Re: SIXTEEN Lounge doug   Sun Oct 20 2019 01:08 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Invest 96L IsoFlame   Wed Oct 16 2019 09:46 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Invest 96L BloodstarModerator   Thu Oct 17 2019 01:49 PM

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