Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Bay of Campeche area now being tracked as Invest 92L. 40% chance for development, likely to be a rain event, with most of it on the east.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 227 (Zeta) , Major: 289 (Laura) Florida - Any: 976 (Michael) Major: 976 (Michael)
 


Archives 2010s >> 2020 News Talkbacks

MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4366
Loc: Orlando, FL
Into Mid August
      Fri Aug 07 2020 09:16 AM

5PM EDT Update 14 August 2020

Tropical Storm Kyle has formed, and along with Josephine there are two active named storms in the Atlantic right now. This one is also not a threat to the US, however Josephine may get close to Bermuda as a weak wave or extra tropical depression on Wednesday. Kyle is the earliest K storm to form in the Atlantic, it beats Katrina from 2005 by 10 days.

Beyond that, no immediate areas, but there are indications that starting late next week things may start to move very quickly in the tropics

Original Update
The Atlantic remains mostly quiet into Friday, but there is a new low chance development area being watched in the main development region (MDR) of the Atlantic between the Caribbean and Africa.

This wave only has a 10% chance for development right now. Of note though, it has strong rotation in some of the updraft towers along the northwest side, so it may be more resilient to hostile conditions than most waves, it'll be interesting to see if it persists. As of now, it has no invest designation.

Another wave east of this, currently around 29.1W is also worth watching longer term and may ultimately prove more interesting.

The typical season forecasts, CSU, NOAA, etc have adjusted upwards to an extremely active season. The most likely period of high activity starts around August 20-25th through about the same time in September, at that time the Atlantic likely will be unusually ideal for tropical systems. This is aligning with the traditional climatological peak of hurricane season also, which enhances the probability. So effectively conditions are extremely ripe, it does not mean they will happen, but most of the environmental conditions are in the positive for it to happen, so there's a chance basically any wave that shows up develops in that time period, and it could mean multiple tropical storms at once.

On top of this long range forecasts suggest that a strong high pressure ridge is likely to form in the last week or two of August, these typically block storms from recurving, and force them further west which means the chance for land impacts is also greater. This is for awareness to be vigilant this year, but trying to avoid hyping the situation. It's just the typical negative factors that reduce activity or land impact aren't as much of an issue this year.

This article will cover post-Isaias until the next major system that may arrives.

{{StormLinks|Josephine|11|11|2020|11|Josephine}}

{{StormCarib}}

{{StormLinks|Kyle|12|12|2020|12|Kyle}}

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Into Mid August MikeCAdministrator Fri Aug 07 2020 09:16 AM

Extra information
0 registered and 1 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  CFHC, MikeC, Ed Dunham, Colleen A., Atricks, danielw, Clark, Christine H, RedingtonBeachGuy, SkeetoBite, Bloodstar, tpratch, typhoon_tip, cieldumort, Jackie M, Wigeon, Hank Buck 



Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Thread views: 1924

Rate this thread

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center