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Ophelia slowly winding down but not without still causing problems as center near Norfolk, but effects widespread. Elsewhere, TD17 expected to go fish
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 27 (Idalia) , Major: 27 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 27 (Idalia) Major: 27 (Idalia)
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Reged: Sun
Posts: 4542
Loc: Orlando, FL
Early October Activity
      Thu Oct 01 2020 11:50 AM

4:00PM CDT 06 October 2020 Update
Hurricane Delta is a Category 4 hurricane with 145mph winds in the Northwest Caribbean, expected to landfall in the Northeastern Yucatan (Cozumel and Cancun area) tomorrow morning.

In the Yucatan, the life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels in areas of onshore winds by as much as 9 to 13 ft above normal tide levels along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche to Progresso, and 6 to 9 ft above normal tide levels along the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo Catoche. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Beyond the impacts of the Yucatan it will have time to strengthen, but as it moves further into the Gulf increasing southwesterly shear and the cooler shelf waters over the northern Gulf are expected to cause some reduction in wind speed as it gets closer to land, but a significant increase in the size of Delta's wind field while it is over the Gulf of Mexico, which increases the spatial extent of the storm surge and wind threats for the northern Gulf coast. So regardless of Delta's final landfall intensity, the projected large size of the hurricane is likely to result in a very significant storm surge and wind event for portions of the northern Gulf coast later this week. Likely moreso than Sally or Laura.

Those in the areas please listen to local media and officials.

6:40PM CDT 05 October 2020 Update
Recon has found a closed eye. Pressure is down to at least 983mb, and it is just a matter of time before winds catch up to the pressure and structure. As we head into the overnight hours, it is becoming possible that Delta could bomb and become a very dangerous and formidable Major hurricane even sooner rather than later.

Model discussion is now open in the Delta Forecast Lounge .

5:40PM CDT 05 October 2020 Update
Delta continues to rapidly strengthen. The forecast calling for Delta to become a Major once in the GOM may actually be behind the curve, as the forecast has been to this point.

This cyclone is in a very favorable environment for Rapid Intensification over the next day or two at least and as Gamma has continued to weaken, likely helping alter conditions in the Gulf, it remains to be seen what could detrimentally impact Delta prior to landfall in the southern US (location still uncertain, but models are generally focused on Louisiana to W Florida panhandle.

Interests in the Northwestern Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico may want to begin preparing for the impact of what could become a fairly stout Major Hurricane.

3:00AM CDT 03 October 2020 Update
Gamma is intensifying tonight, with a recent blowup of very deep convection within the center of circulation. Recon is finding continual pressure drops, and winds are rising. In addition to being a substantial rain and flood threat for locations in the northwest Caribbean, Gamma very well may be making a mad dash to exceed wind and wave intensity forecasts.

Elsewhere, the wave behind Gamma may loop around it next week and could enter the Gulf. Behind that, even yet another approaching wave is up to bat, and is already looking active. Both of these are not yet Invest tagged, but could be over the weekend.

Original Entry
Two areas are being watched for early October, Invest 91L in the West Caribbean with a 70% chance to develop and another area east of the leeward islands with a 20% chance to develop over the next 5 days.

The impacts beyond the short term are unclear for both, but likely should be watched by the Yucatan, Gulf, and Caribbean islands.


Delta Forecast Lounge

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Early October Activity MikeCAdministrator Thu Oct 01 2020 11:50 AM
. * * Re: Early October Activity MikeCAdministrator   Thu Oct 08 2020 07:55 PM
. * * Re: Early October Activity MikeCAdministrator   Thu Oct 08 2020 11:31 AM
. * * Re: Early October Activity MikeCAdministrator   Thu Oct 08 2020 08:00 AM
. * * Re: Early October Activity MikeCAdministrator   Mon Oct 05 2020 07:14 PM

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