MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4375
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Isabel Meets Poseidon?
Tue Sep 09 2003 06:17 PM
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For Isabel I will be spending time in the Storm Chat during the next week or so (varying times of day) click on the Storm Chat link on the left to go there or use an IRC client to connect to backpack.webmaster.com and join #uswxw.
7PM update Wed:
Recon has arrived in Puerto Rico to start flights tomorrow or Friday.
A full update will come later tonight.
Judging from the latest model trends, it appears Isabel, another strong category 4 storm is heading toward the fish twilrer status -- but no where near as certain as Fabian was. It is another impressive storm like Fabian, and its track is sure to be more erratic, but the model trends have it turning northward before it reaches the US. (Others may trend it back westward.. It must be watched!) As for the Caribbean, it must be watched, but I think it will stay north of the Islands.
Any east coast impact from the storm would be 8 days or more out.
Caveat, naturally, is that it all could change (and as the night goes along I'm finding more stuff they may make me change this tomorrow -- if you've been watching me change this post you aren't seeing things), but I don't see how it could at the moment. (See HankFrank's post in the Storm Forum for a valid reason it could change or SNONUT for another)
We'll be tracking it.
Tropical Depression #14 is shooting northward and is also no concern to land.
Outside of this, we really don't have any immediate concerns, although the Gulf is interesting and we are watching the rest of the basin as well.
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
More discussion on the storm on our Storm Forum.
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
- [mike@flhurricane.com]
Edited by MikeC (Thu Sep 11 2003 09:02 AM)
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