General long range runs of the GFS have had impacts along the gulf in over a week or so for the past few runs, however, other models have concentrated on the east pacific. The split happens around June 15th, where Euro (and Canadian) moves some energy in the Southwest Caribbean into the east pacific, while the GFS forms and curves it north into the Gulf. Splitting the difference would be the Yucatan Peninsula.
The area to watch the middle of next week is the Southwest Caribbean, beyond that too soon to tell, but most likely it'll move into the Yucatan and not form on the Atlantic side.
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Re: General Long Range Discussion
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