Invest 91L, hampered by less than ideal let alone seasonably favorable conditions in the Main Development Region, is now on approach to the northern Leeward Islands and very arguably a Tropical Storm. This puts the northern Leewards and Greater Antilles at threat for either a low-end tropical storm if held in check and continuing along a more southerly track, or possibly even something more, later, if the apparent sheared cyclone does not strengthen enough to feel the tug up and away back out to sea fast enough.
Several recon flights today and tonight are going to be fed into models and as there is now a coherent system (I would argue sheared tropical storm) runs are more apt to have a greater level of accuracy than prior runs focusing on a broad low with several competing globules of vorticity.
0z model runs will be shared here later tonight and early tomorrow on what will by then likely be SIX or Earl.
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