The 18Z GFS has shifted eastward again indicating a close brush to Tampa Bay then continuing into the Big Bend. Currently waiting for the other 18Z model runs. Ian did not intensify today, but the NHC consensus still calls for Cat 3 intensity near Cuba’s western tip on Monday. Southwesterly shear is expected to weaken the storm beginning Tuesday into Wednesday leading to a weakening but expanding storm. That could mean an extended time period of nasty weather along the entire west coast of Florida. Keep watching and making your storm preparations. *Edit* The 18Z HMON nudged a bit East and the 18Z HWRF nudged a bit West. It’s still a crap shoot.
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