The GFS has been consistently wrong in this region, it did this quite a bit last year in this same area as well. GFS has it's uses, but it really does have a persistent problem with the Central American Gyre and Venezuela. Not one of the European ensembles shows anything either. East Pacific is the more likely situation. It'll be interesting to see when the GFS stops showing this. Central America will likely get a lot of rain either way.
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