Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 199531 Years of Hurricanes Without the Hype - Since 1995

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The GFS has been consistently wrong in this region, it did this quite a bit last year in this same area as well. GFS has it's uses, but it really does have a persistent problem with the Central American Gyre and Venezuela. Not one of the European ensembles shows anything either. East Pacific is the more likely situation. It'll be interesting to see when the GFS stops showing this. Central America will likely get a lot of rain either way.

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Thanks for the insight. 12Z did back off significantly on timing/development and ultimate fate if anything is able to spin up. instead (like you mention) lots of moisture associated with the gyre soaks C. America, and moisture also streams NE across Cuba/S. Fla into the Bahamas.

What are the reasons for the GFS to have problems with the gyre, often overachieving development in the region?
I like to use the GFS for medium range forecasts because even though it often cries "wolf", it can give a "heads up" days in advance of the other models.

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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/

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