MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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June into July
Sun Jun 25 2023 11:36 AM
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7:45 PM EDT 13 July 2023 Update
An Area in the north central Atlantic, about 1000 miles to the west southwest of the Azores now has a 70% chance to develop, it's being tracked as invest 94L and it is possible for a subtropical Storm to develop out of it. Those in the Azores should watch. The next name on the list is Don.
Outside of this area, it's quiet in the Atlantic, but things may pick up again in about two weeks.
7:45 AM EDT 1 July 2023 Update
In the Atlantic, there is nothing being watched at the moment, which is typical for early July. The east Pacific is currently active with Hurricane Adrian and Tropical Storm Beatriz. But back to where we focus on we have nothing imminent in the Atlantic tropics.
While there are a few waves crossing the Atlantic, shear and dry air are much higher than when Bret and Cindy formed, and thus its very unlikely anything will develop in the next 5 days or so. This is more typical for July, things tend to ramp up in August (last year was an outlier with no named storms in August)
Original Update
Bret moved through into the Caribbean and has dissipated, it is not expected to develop again in the Atlantic side, but may influence activity in the east pacific.
Cindy is expected to dissipate in the Atlantic by Tuesday, but possibly could reform later by Thursday somewhat near Bermuda. Although odds favor it staying east of Bermuda, it is wise for those there (and Nova Scotia) to keep watch on Cindy and its remnants. The official forecast currently does not show regeneration, but could later as called out in the discussion.
Beyond this the rise of Mid June activity will wane a bit as Saharan Dust has kicked up since then squelching the other waves that have followed Cindy. However, in a week or so there may be another wave in the MDR. The typical areas in July should also be watched, like the West Caribbean, off the Southeast US, and Gulf, but nothing immediate there either. The MDR heat anomalies will likely level off in July, but the shear and dry air will be mixed around to potentially keep things down there.
In Short,Cindy unlikely to threaten Bermuda directly, but should be watched for changes, Nova Scotia will want to watch Cindy and its remnants to see if it regenerates. Nothing else in the Atlantic near term, but something could happen late this week in the MDR again if things align.
{{StormLinks|Don|05|5|2023|Don|Don}}
{{StormLinks|Cindy|4|4|2023|4|Cindy}}
{{BermudaNews}}
{{CHC}}
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