12z GFS has this system becoming a hurricane north of the Caribbean between Cuba and Andros island then moves it over or near Key West July 29th as a cat 2 (probably understated if it goes that path) then ends the run in the Central Gulf. GFS has been a bit off this year, but this area is not as known for "phantoms" as the west Caribbean.
The 12z Canadian takes it right into the Caribbean and doesn't get stronger. 0z Euro has it north of the Caribbean but much weaker (Although some of the ensembles are much stronger).
With some ensemble support from the euro, this mdr system is likely to be worth watching to see if this persists or fades over the coming week or so. Way too early to speculate on where, although we'll mention what the operational models suggest regardless. (Just know at this far out it's extremely unlikely)
12z EURO doesn't really pick up the system like the 12z GFS does out to 240 hours. (Weak wave approaching the E. Caribbean on July 24th is the only real identity on the euro operational) However some of the ensembles do pick it up more.
Probably the biggest reason it wouldn't develop is mid level dry air, so right now the more likely scenario is that this system won't be able to get going.
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