Thought I'd post an update in case anyone found this interesting.
Why is it warmer than usual? A Twitter thread started by Ryan Maue says that the January '22 Hunga Tonga volcano (Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai submarine volcano) was originally estimated to have put 50 million metric tons of water into the stratosphere, but those estimates are now realized to have been low by a factor of 3x.
While Volcanic eruptions high in SO2 cause cooling, those high in water produce heating. Pinatubo's SO2 cooled the Earth for years, but Hunga Tonga had 2% of Pinatubo's SO2. They expect Hunga Tonga's water vapor to warm the Earth for seven years.
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Re: 2023 Season Forecasts (Updated)
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