Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Sara's remnants are now in the Gulf, but are not expected to reorganize much. Elsewhere, no tropical development is anticipated.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 43 (Milton) , Major: 43 (Milton) Florida - Any: 43 (Milton) Major: 43 (Milton)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
 

You are not logged in. [Login] Other Forums · Search · Active Topics
New user · Who's Online · FAQ · Rules · Calendar

Archives 2020s >> 2023 Forecast Lounge
Previous thread Previous   View all threads Index   Next thread Next   Flat Mode Flat  

cieldumort
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
Harold Lounge
      Wed Aug 16 2023 02:03 PM

A seemingly slow start to the Atlantic Hurricane Season in and around the Gulf of Mexico, but models are now homing in on development very close to home within the next seven days.

The view from 50,000'
A moisture surge is set to approach and cross Florida over the weekend and multiple models spin this feature up. Additionally, a CAG (Central American Gyre) or something at least close enough to meeting a more formal definition, is likely to develop over the next several days, and help promote the production of one or more tropical cyclones in the western Atlantic. These will also benefit from the development of a belt of low-level westerly anomalies creating cyclonic background vorticity across the tropical Atlantic, very uncharacteristic of El Niños. The ECMWF ensemble has also shown an overlap of anticyclonic wave breaking over this forecast enhanced vorticity in the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, which can further encourage "home grown" genesis.

ECMWF currently suggests around a 40-50% chance of development close to Florida over this weekend into early next week, increasing to 65% by the time the forecast area of interest is in the central to western Gulf by the middle of next week (Aug 23-24 or so). The GFS also develops this region.

While a disturbance for an Invest tag to be assigned has yet to appear, this now looks probable, and as such we are starting this lounge. An Invest number will be assigned and added to the title should these forecasts verify.

We are now in the climo peak of the Atlantic basin, and climatology shows us that systems in this part of the basin around this time of year can go from zero to a real threat quickly. NHC opening odds of development are set at 20%, and this could be conservative.

The forecast Gulf disturbance has become defined enough to be assigned an Invest tag, 91L, and the title has been updated accordingly.
PTC-NINE on 8/21/10CT -Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Tue Aug 22 2023 02:04 AM)

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Harold Lounge cieldumort Wed Aug 16 2023 02:03 PM
. * * Re: 91L Lounge cieldumort   Sun Aug 20 2023 06:58 PM

Extra information
0 registered and 1 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  



Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Thread views: 1737

Rate this thread

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center