Model ability to accurately predict the synoptic scale steering flow especially after 10 days but even within the 7-10 day window is pretty limited. No doubt that 95L will be named and most likely become a Major, but GFS calling for a major very near the Florida east coast two weeks out is a possible outcome, but of dubious reliability.
95L has some scary dangerous potential if it heads to land. Certainly one to watch closely.
Definitely. The different models have differing ability to discern change over time, and each TC present unique challenges, 5-7 days out is where I look consensus. 3-5 days I look for model to fine-tune the cone of impact.
I did not have great trust in models for Andrew, Floyd and Dorian- the 3 majors tracking toward Florida that were of great concern until passage. ATM, this one has my undivided attention, even though latest modeling suggest re-curvature well to the east. If timing allows a strong high pressure ridge to set up north of the TC as it re-curves WNW/NW to the east of the Bahamas, a stair-step westward toward the Florida peninsula, or elsewhere along the east coast, could be a possibility.
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Re: Cape Verde-origin Major Hurricane second week in September?
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