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A closed low is likely to form in the W Gulf by Saturday and generate copious rains for several days in NE MX, south, east and coastal TX.

Days since last Hurricane Landfall — US Any: 610 (Milton), US Major: 610 (Milton), FL Any: 610 (Milton), FL Major: 610 (Milton)

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Archives 2020s >> 2023 Forecast Lounge

cieldumort
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Posts: 2679
Loc: Austin, Tx

Re: SIXTEEN
Thu Sep 21 2023 12:08 PM

Recent Cyclone Phase modeling has largely forecast that SIXTEEN will straddle the line for quite a while between something that could at least casually be called a tropical cyclone, and something else. Most runs from most models have kept SIXTEEN on the asymmetric and neutral to cold core side of things (more non-tropical). However, judging from this morning's visible satellite images, those runs may be underdoing things a bit, and this is probably why NHC didn't waste any time going from 50% to PTC with watches and warnings at 11 this morning.

As a practical matter, SIXTEEN's impacts over water, along and near the coastlines, will largely be that of a tropical storm regardless of how SIXTEEN winds up technically. It is fair to call the system a developing "Tropical Cyclone-like" coastal low, and NHC does in fact make mention of this"

Quote:

"Although it is unclear as to whether the cyclone detaches from a front that is forecast to extend northeastward from the center, the guidance suggests a tropical-cyclone like core and structure when it nears the coast."

There is also a modest but real chance SIXTEEN becomes a hurricane.

Post Extras

Entire topic
Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Ophelia Lounge	IsoFlame	Thu Sep 21 2023 12:08 PM
Re: Ophelia Lounge	cieldumort	Fri Sep 22 2023 06:08 PM
Re: SIXTEEN	cieldumort	Thu Sep 21 2023 12:08 PM
Re: TC along stalled front next week?	Keith B	Sun Sep 17 2023 06:41 AM
Re: TC along stalled front next week?	IsoFlame	Sun Sep 17 2023 05:47 PM
Re: TC along stalled front next week?	Keith B	Sun Sep 17 2023 08:34 PM

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