Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 712 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2023
Latest analysis places a frontal zone over southern portions of the area as a ridge of high pressure builds across southeast GA and into FL. Persistent band-like showers are occurring just to the north of the boundary over St. Johns/Flagler/Putnam counties and slowly creeping southward with the front, with just some mist and drizzle occurring closer to the coasts north of St. Johns County. Breezy conditions also continue with the strengthening pressure gradient, which will increase a bit more diurnally today across all areas. Breezy northeasterly winds expected at times around 15-20 mph for the coast, lower speeds further inland. Gusts at the coastal areas expected to be around the 25-35 mph range.
Coastal flooding: Tidal water levels are expected to meet coastal flood advy criteria today, with good potential to meet coastal flood warning criteria from around Mayport northward to St Simons Island where extra-tropical surge guidance shows levels at about 2.4 to 2.8 ft MHHW. Water levels are very near coastal flood advy along the St Johns River from inland Duval county to Satsuma in Putnam county and should eventually meet and exceed minor flooding later today or tonight. These elevated water levels along the coast and St Johns River are likely to continue the next few days so coastal flood advisories will likely need to be extended through early next week given the higher astronomical tides and the persistent onshore flow.
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Re: Coastal trof developing east of Florida / strong gradient with nor'easter conditions
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