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Now looking at a chance for two TDs in the Atlantic (low threat to land), but likely development in the Pacific nearing Hawaii.

Days since last Hurricane Landfall — US Any: 670 (Milton), US Major: 670 (Milton), FL Any: 670 (Milton), FL Major: 670 (Milton)

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Archives 2020s >> 2023 Forecast Lounge

cieldumort
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Posts: 2744
Loc: Austin, Tx

Re: 94L Lounge
Thu Oct 12 2023 05:22 PM

Models increasingly wash out Sean to the northwest of 94L without creating much of an escape hatch for 94L behind him, and instead build high pressure in his place, expanding well to the west, keeping 94L on a generally west to west-northwest heading for several days.

There is strong unanimity among the global models today in this scenario, which could put the eastern Caribbean islands at risk next week should these forecasts hold, and especially so should the more southern ensemble members verify better.

Here are the 12z Ensemble member plots for both the GFS and ECMWF (Cr. Weathernerds)

Post Extras

Entire topic
Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Tammy Lounge	cieldumort	Thu Oct 12 2023 05:22 PM
Re: Tammy Lounge	cieldumort	Sat Oct 21 2023 12:21 PM
Re: Tammy Lounge	IdaliaJackson	Thu Oct 19 2023 12:44 PM
Re: Tammy Lounge	cieldumort	Fri Oct 20 2023 02:08 AM
Re: 94L Lounge	cieldumort	Thu Oct 12 2023 05:22 PM
Re: 94L Lounge	cieldumort	Fri Oct 13 2023 12:54 PM

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