There are two features of interest in the Caribbean at this time, which may complicate the forecast a bit.
NHC is eyeballing the trof that also appears to be what the GFS has been, in a general sense, expecting off and on for several runs, and this seems to be the disturbance that the GFS spins up into a hurricane in the run originally referenced at the start of this thread.
West of this location is a weak low, which is what some runs of other models seem to have been sniffing out, or at least creating a merger with the trof NHC is now highlighting. The last few runs of the GFS does recognize the weak low, but appears to subsume it into Invest 96L (the system well north of the Caribbean and presently near the Bahamas). That does not look like a very plausible outcome, but possible.
Given that the GFS "mathing" has finally hit a ball in generally the right location at about the right time and in an environment that is both low to moderate shear and high ocean heat content, the original run referenced to in the OP seems to have at least some merit.
It will be interesting to see if and if so, how, these two features interact. One or both could develop. NHC has only mentioned the trof and has increased their bid to 50% odds of development within 7 days.
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Re: Hurricane in the NW Caribbean Sea in early November
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