An active Central American Gyre pattern, as has helped give rise to our first Invest of the year (first for both the Atlantic and the East Pac, even), shows no signs of going away or winding down any time soon, and by the middle of next week conditions look to become increasingly favorable for development either just on the East Pac side of southeastern Mexico - and potentially crossing over into the Bay of Campeche (BoC) from around the Gulf of Tehuantepec, whether intact or reforming - or forming in the western Gulf outright.
The preponderance of trustworthy models and their ensemble members suggest a roughly 50/50 chance of a TD or named storm in this region next week, that would then be landlocked.
Given the strength of the signal, we are starting a lounge for this section of the Central American Gyre at this time. Should an Invest or named storm be assigned as several models generally advertise, the title of this Lounge will be updated accordingly.
Title changed to Yucatan Low Pending Invest # with today's 6/16 NHC TWO update. Most likely this feature will be tagged Invest 91L within the next 24 hours and the title will be updated again accordingly.
Assigned 91L the morning of 06/17. Title has been updated.
6/17/24 3pm CT. Watches and Warnings likely at any time for Storm 01L - Ciel
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