Models have really consolidated around this hook left into Mexico whether or not 01L decisively becomes a tropical cyclone. There may have been some trend of the system today to begin organizing a tad north and east of where earlier model runs expected it to be, so that may call into question how much this consensus should be relied upon, but either way, the system will be sprawling, and the exact point of landfall is almost a moot point as far as impacts.
Something else to watch for is how much tug 01L may feel into the deeper convection. At the moment, there is a bit of balance in that deeper convection is primarily to the north and south of the approximate center, with some also a bit northwest and east-southeast. Should one or two quadrants dominate, that might induce a bit of pull bias, although probably not all that much, given its extreme size.
NHC has also mentioned that the model trackers look to be faster than believable, and has set the official NHC forecast track slower than deterministic and consensus trackers. If this NHC call bears out, it is also conceivable that the system has some more time over water than some modeling would otherwise imply.
0z runs out tonight with more recon data to work with. Could be enlightening.
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