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#HurricaneBeryl recon finding the cyclone stronger again; likely Cat 4 on next NHC update.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 306 (Idalia) , Major: 306 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 306 (Idalia) Major: 306 (Idalia)
Hur Beryl
ADV#11A 1:00 pm EDT
12.0N 60.5W
Wind: 130MPH
Pres: 959mb
Moving:
Wnw at 20 mph
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Chris
ADV#3A 1:00 pm EDT
20.2N 97.7W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Moving:
W at 12 mph
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General Discussion >> 2024 Forecast Lounge
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2338
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Area East of Bahamas Lounge (92L)
      Fri Jun 21 2024 01:49 PM

92L's LLC has stopped tracking W to WSW and instead has zagged WNW, into the shear.

The truth about Tropical Cyclone classification is that it is ultimately subjective. On one hand, there will be many who believe it is now a classic sheared TC. In my opinion, they are probably correct. There are others who would say that it has been too free of organized deep convection. I understand this. Given that 92L was probably already a tropical cyclone overnight with organized deep convection better aligned with the LLC, I personally lean to the take that it is a sheared tropical cyclone.

The odds of NHC classifying it in real time may be coming down, but the impacts will resemble that of a sheared tropical depression or sheared weak tropical storm, and it could in fact come together a bit more while approaching and/or coming ashore with the friction, despite the shear. Also, it may yet resume tracking more westward again, lessening the shear.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Area East of Bahamas Lounge (92L) MikeCAdministrator Fri Jun 21 2024 01:49 PM
. * * Re: Area East of Bahamas Lounge (92L) cieldumort   Fri Jun 21 2024 01:49 PM
. * * Re: Area East of Bahamas Lounge (92L) cieldumort   Fri Jun 21 2024 06:49 AM
. * * Re: Area East of Bahamas Lounge (92L) MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jun 21 2024 07:29 AM
. * * Re: Area East of Bahamas Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 16 2024 04:48 PM
. * * Re: Area East of Bahamas Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 17 2024 07:06 AM
. * * Re: Area East of Bahamas Lounge IsoFlame   Mon Jun 17 2024 11:22 AM
. * * Re: Area East of Bahamas Lounge bob3d   Mon Jun 17 2024 02:23 PM
. * * Re: Area East of Bahamas Lounge JMII   Tue Jun 18 2024 11:52 AM
. * * Re: Area East of Bahamas Lounge bob3d   Tue Jun 18 2024 11:57 AM
. * * Re: Area East of Bahamas Lounge GeorgeN   Tue Jun 18 2024 01:29 PM
. * * Re: Area East of Bahamas Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Jun 19 2024 05:27 PM
. * * Re: Area East of Bahamas Lounge IsoFlame   Thu Jun 20 2024 09:02 AM
. * * Re: Area East of Bahamas Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Jun 20 2024 04:00 PM
. * * Re: Area East of Bahamas Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Jun 20 2024 05:19 PM
. * * Re: Area East of Bahamas Lounge IsoFlame   Thu Jun 20 2024 06:29 PM
. * * Re: Area East of Bahamas Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Jun 20 2024 07:40 PM
. * * Re: Area East of Bahamas Lounge IsoFlame   Tue Jun 18 2024 01:26 PM
. * * Re: Area East of Bahamas Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Jun 18 2024 05:34 AM
. * * Re: Area East of Bahamas Lounge IsoFlame   Mon Jun 17 2024 11:24 AM
. * * Re: Area East of Bahamas Lounge GeorgeN   Mon Jun 17 2024 10:55 AM

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