New Article: CSU releases 2026 season numbers, slightly below average. https://flhurricane.com
Days since last Hurricane Landfall —
US Any:
554 (Milton),
US Major:
554 (Milton),
FL Any:
554 (Milton),
FL Major:
554 (Milton)
cieldumort
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Posts: 2664
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Beryl Lounge
Sat Jun 29 2024 04:24 AM
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Here are my initial maximum lifetime intensity probabilities expectations for Beryl.
Lower than normal confidence owing to a number of early season variables still in play that are less so during the true climo peak, as well as the consensus forecast track that is presently advertising land interactions, some of it potentially mountainous and disruptive.
Low-end Tropical Storm (Current advisory): Nearly 0%
Mid-range Tropical Storm: 1%
High-end Tropical Storm: 4%
Cat 1 Hurricane: 14%
Cat 2 Hurricane: 18%
Cat 3 Hurricane: 22%
Cat 4 Hurricane: 25%
Cat5 Hurricane: 16%
Another way of looking at this, is that I anticipate Beryl to have a 95% chance of becoming a hurricane during his existence and a 63% chance of becoming a Major.
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