As of the June 29, 2024 11AM Advisory, the updated NHC intensity forecast explicitly forecasts Rapid Intensification and brings Beryl up to Major (Cat 3+) before it even reaches the Windwards. For the time of year, this is unprecedented.
Just looking at hurricanes passing within 100 miles of Barbados this early in a season, Dr. Philip Klotzbach notes: "Only 2 hurricanes on record (since 1851) have been within 100 miles of Barbados prior to 1 August: Emily (2005) and Elsa (2021)"
Taking a look at the intensities and tracks of our two only analogs for this event:
Above: Elsa (2021) passed through the Windwards as a Cat 1
Above: Emily (2005) passed through the Windwards as a Cat 1
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Re: Tropical Storm Beryl Forms Windward Islands Should be on Alert
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