There is a lot of general track consensus among virtually all models and their ensemble members out through about Days 4 and 5.
Beyond Day 4/5, spread starts to diverge into to main camps: Camp A) Somewhat to considerably weaker and west, with a few exceptions, and Camp B) Somewhat to considerably stronger and US-bound, with a few exceptions. Notably, out past about 5 days the EURO ensemble mean definitively tracks towards CONUS whereas the GFS ensemble mean tries to but seems to hit a brick wall of confusion instead.
Above: ECMWF and GFS 12z ensembles now up. Credits: Weathernerds.org
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