Basically, it all depends on how disrupted the core becomes. The better it hangs together, the more danger to the US both in intensity and landfall.
The GFS shows that erosion of the ridge very clearly, the ECMWF shows less erosion. (500hPa)
I think the HWRF is hinting at a breakdown of steering currents in the gulf at the end of the period. It will be interesting to see which scenario pans out.
-------------------- M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
U. Arizona PhD Student
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