In general, the probabilities for development in the Tropical Atlantic have been going up. For this particular wave, its chances look better once closer to or outright in the Caribbean.
The probabilities shown in the TCFPGP below also include the next wave coming up, but it does still advertise the improving conditions across the Tropical Atlantic overall.
Below: Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Guidance Product Developed by the Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch at CIRA 0-48h TC Formation Probability
Below: Today's 12z ECMWF ensembles-implied probabilities of development from this wave out 24-72 hours. As can be seen, these runs suggest its chances increase substantially once in the Caribbean.
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