18z hurricane models are rolling out on 90L (vort-centric)
HWRF, HMON, HAFS-A and HAFS-B unanimously develop 90L and send it south-southwest over the next few days. Caveat: These tend to perform better when a system has already become a bona fide TC.
18z HWRF 1005mb TD/borderline TS by midday Friday while well east of the central TX coast. Continues south and begins deforming and merging with the approaching tropical wave. Combined, they make a landfall of sorts late Monday night south of Brownsville, TX as a strong disturbance.
18z HMON 1001mb TD/TS by mid afternoon Friday while well east of the central TX coast. Continues intensifying into a strong TS by midday Saturday while meandering well offshore of the central TX coast. Possibly becomes H1 while southeast of Brownsville overnight Saturday. Looks to wash out east of Tampico, MX by Monday morning.
18z HAFS-A Tropical Storm late tonight while just offshore of Freeport, TX, meanders and heads southward becoming a high-end TS/borderline H1 by predawn Saturday well offshore of the central TX coast. Cat 2 well southeast of Brownsville, TX late Saturday night. Meanders, weakens, merges with approaching wave and makes landfall south of Brownsville as a stout disturbance or possible weak TS midday Tuesday.
18z HAFS-B Weak Tropical Storm southeast of Matagorda, TX mid-morning Friday, heading south. Strong TS by midday Saturday while well east of Brownsville, TX. Skirts central MX coastline, merges and deforms with approaching wave with an apparent final landfall as a stout disturbance south of Brownsville, TX overnight Monday.
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