There are some signs that the approaching wave is becoming a bit sharper. It remains to be seen how it fares once it crosses into the Bay of Campeche, but early on at least, shear could be low and of course SSTs are exceptional.
Without going much into still murky details, here is a list of various 0z and 18z model runs with notation as to whether they develop ("YES") something in the SW Gulf regardless of how (as noted in the original post, methods may include all on this wave's own, interaction with old 90L, interaction with the front, interactions with old 90L and the front, or old 90L itself), or if they don't ("NO"), or inconclusive (INC)
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Re: BOC Wave/Front
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