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Invests 92L and 93L in the Atlantic. Invest 93C in the Central Pacific may pose a very serious threat to Hawaii later this week.
Days since last Hurricane Landfall — US Any: 670 (Milton), US Major: 670 (Milton), FL Any: 670 (Milton), FL Major: 670 (Milton)
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Archives 2020s >> 2024 Forecast Lounge
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cieldumortModerator
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Reged:
Posts: 2748
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: NINE Forecast Lounge
      Mon Sep 23 2024 02:44 PM

With the benefit of recon starting to investigate PTC NINE, I've seen just enough to put out my first best guess as to NINE's maximum lifetime intensity.

Invest/PTC Only (Presently): 0%
Tropical Depression <40 MPH: 0%
Tropical Storm 40-45 knots: <1%
Tropical Storm 50 knots: <1%
Tropical Storm 60 knots: 2%
Cat 1 Hurricane: 3%
Cat 2 Hurricane: 14%
Cat 3 Hurricane: 18%
Cat 4 Hurricane: 30%
Cat 5 Hurricane: 32%

Or looked at another way, about a 3% chance of not becoming a hurricane of any category and about a 97% chance of becoming at least a Cat 1 hurricane. An 80% chance of becoming a Major Hurricane (Cat 3, 4 or 5), and a 62% chance of becoming a high-end Major (Cat 4 or 5).

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Helene Lounge cieldumortModerator Mon Sep 23 2024 02:44 PM
. * * Re: Helene Lounge cieldumortModerator   Wed Sep 25 2024 09:59 AM
. * * Re: Helene Lounge cieldumortModerator   Wed Sep 25 2024 10:05 AM
. * * Re: Helene Lounge IsoFlame   Wed Sep 25 2024 01:05 PM
. * * Re: Helene Lounge IsoFlame   Wed Sep 25 2024 01:31 PM
. * * Re: Helene Lounge MichaelA   Wed Sep 25 2024 06:10 PM
. * * Re: Helene Lounge MichaelA   Wed Sep 25 2024 08:46 PM
. * * Re: Helene Lounge OrlandoDan   Thu Sep 26 2024 09:34 AM
. * * Re: Helene Lounge Lamar-Plant City   Thu Sep 26 2024 10:37 AM
. * * Re: Helene Lounge cieldumortModerator   Thu Sep 26 2024 10:42 AM
. * * Re: Helene Lounge Lamar-Plant City   Thu Sep 26 2024 10:54 AM
. * * Re: Helene Lounge JMII   Thu Sep 26 2024 11:19 AM
. * * Re: Helene Lounge cieldumortModerator   Thu Sep 26 2024 11:31 AM
. * * Re: Helene Lounge cieldumortModerator   Thu Sep 26 2024 11:38 AM
. * * Re: Helene Lounge cieldumortModerator   Thu Sep 26 2024 12:21 PM
. * * Re: Helene Lounge Psyber   Thu Sep 26 2024 04:08 PM
. * * Re: Helene Lounge JumadukeFL   Thu Sep 26 2024 06:33 PM
. * * Re: Helene Lounge FlYankee   Thu Sep 26 2024 06:27 PM
. * * Re: Helene Lounge IsoFlame   Thu Sep 26 2024 06:34 PM
. * * Re: Helene Lounge Psyber   Thu Sep 26 2024 07:13 PM
. * * Re: Helene Lounge JMII   Fri Sep 27 2024 08:43 AM
. * * Re: Helene Lounge cieldumortModerator   Thu Sep 26 2024 02:30 PM
. * * Re: Helene Lounge Kraig   Thu Sep 26 2024 10:59 AM
. * * Re: Helene Lounge Kraig   Thu Sep 26 2024 09:49 AM
. * * Re: Helene Lounge Kraig   Thu Sep 26 2024 10:06 AM
. * * Re: Helene Lounge cieldumortModerator   Wed Sep 25 2024 01:49 AM
. * * Re: Helene Lounge cieldumortModerator   Tue Sep 24 2024 07:29 PM
. * * Re: NINE Forecast Lounge cieldumortModerator   Tue Sep 24 2024 02:03 AM
. * * Re: NINE Forecast Lounge IsoFlame   Tue Sep 24 2024 10:33 AM
. * * Re: NINE Forecast Lounge OrlandoDan   Tue Sep 24 2024 03:25 PM
. * * Re: NINE Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Tue Sep 24 2024 05:21 PM
. * * Re: NINE Forecast Lounge IsoFlame   Tue Sep 24 2024 05:47 PM
. * * Re: NINE Forecast Lounge JMII   Wed Sep 25 2024 08:37 AM
. * * Re: NINE Forecast Lounge OrlandoDan   Wed Sep 25 2024 09:01 AM
. * * Re: NINE Forecast Lounge Owlguin   Tue Sep 24 2024 05:36 PM
. * * Re: NINE Forecast Lounge JMII   Tue Sep 24 2024 04:19 PM
. * * Re: NINE Forecast Lounge JumadukeFL   Tue Sep 24 2024 04:34 PM
. * * Re: NINE Forecast Lounge cieldumortModerator   Mon Sep 23 2024 02:44 PM
. * * Re: NINE Forecast Lounge BloodstarModerator   Mon Sep 23 2024 03:43 PM
. * * Re: NINE Forecast Lounge Lamar-Plant City   Mon Sep 23 2024 07:13 PM
. * * Re: NINE Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Sep 23 2024 11:21 PM
. * * Re: 97L NW Caribbean/Gulf MikeCAdministrator   Mon Sep 23 2024 06:33 AM
. * * Re: 97L NW Caribbean/Gulf MikeCAdministrator   Mon Sep 23 2024 07:40 AM
. * * Re: 97L NW Caribbean/Gulf bob3d   Mon Sep 23 2024 09:56 AM
. * * Re: 97L NW Caribbean/Gulf IsoFlame   Mon Sep 23 2024 12:06 PM
. * * Re: 97L NW Caribbean/Gulf cieldumortModerator   Mon Sep 23 2024 02:20 AM
. * * Re: 97L NW Caribbean/Gulf cieldumortModerator   Sun Sep 22 2024 09:52 PM
. * * Re: 97L NW Caribbean/Gulf MikeCAdministrator   Mon Sep 23 2024 12:16 AM
. * * Re: Modeled NW Caribbean CAG/TC MikeCAdministrator   Sun Sep 22 2024 07:30 AM
. * * Re: Modeled NW Caribbean CAG/TC IsoFlame   Sun Sep 22 2024 07:47 AM
. * * Re: Modeled NW Caribbean CAG/TC bob3d   Sun Sep 22 2024 10:16 AM
. * * Re: Modeled NW Caribbean CAG/TC MikeCAdministrator   Sun Sep 22 2024 06:24 PM
. * * Re: Modeled NW Caribbean CAG/TC IsoFlame   Sun Sep 22 2024 07:12 PM
. * * Re: Modeled NW Caribbean CAG/TC MikeCAdministrator   Sun Sep 22 2024 08:12 PM
. * * Re: Modeled NW Caribbean CAG/TC IdaliaJackson   Sat Sep 21 2024 04:06 PM
. * * Re: Modeled NW Caribbean CAG/TC cieldumortModerator   Fri Sep 20 2024 06:00 PM
. * * Re: Modeled NW Caribbean CAG/TC cieldumortModerator   Thu Sep 19 2024 09:02 AM
. * * Re: Modeled NW Caribbean CAG/TC cieldumortModerator   Thu Sep 19 2024 08:59 AM
. * * Re: Modeled NW Caribbean CAG/TC cieldumortModerator   Thu Sep 19 2024 01:17 AM

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